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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (1276)	2/23/2001 11:08:30 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

John, >>One thing about fundamentals, when we know about them, they are generally either discounted or there are pieces of info that are missing.<< Watching the grain charts technically (and as a beginner) has been confusing, because of the fundamentals involved and the whole cyclical and seasonal patterns of crops. But I'm beginning to understand the "Mix" required in trading these commodities. There's a great many variable factors: 1. Seasonal 2. Weather 3. Stock Piles 4. World Production 5. Manipulation (Governmental and Corporate) 6. Political Seasonality studies are a fascinating element of technical reads. Right now these charts show that wheat prices seasonally collapse into June and July. It's a straight "V" shaped pattern on monthly charts. So for any rise in prices to be sustained..., something of an aberration has to occur to alter this seasonality pattern. To suggest a 'call option' going into March would require a significant Event.... Is "Low WWide Stock Piles" such an Event...? Soybeans are just the opposite...peaking in May and June and forming a "A" pattern at that time. Higher then average plantings world wide will soften any price increase and may increase downward pressure come May. These are complex markets, but technical reads can make a huge difference when taking positions. Many Thanks for your input over this discussion of wheat....! Chip