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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (56)	2/21/2001 4:48:50 PM
From: Telemarker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Bottom talk. I remember some time ago seeing James Grant interviewed on CNBC. He was asked what event or catalyst could turn the surging equities markets around. He responded that he didn't think that the difference would be made by any one public event, but rather an combination of things such as the inevitable marginal factory being built that really shouldn't have, that marginal IPO coming to market that finally increased the supply of paper too much, etc. So, while the bottom will someday show up clearly on the historical charts, my view is that the factors which would go into eventually turning things around will be imperceptible until their effects are known. Lower share prices, by definition, certainly help though. After having CNBC on in the background this afternoon, it appears that inflation may be such a "non-issue" that even they are starting to pay attention. Not to worry though, it was clearly established that the non-issue was a non-issue and so on they went to the next person to discuss the non-issue. What really amazes me is how some of these "experts" so conveniently divorce the concepts of inflation and monetary policy, BWDIK??? So, lets get on with it. Have the indices break the old lows so that we can have another "surprise" rate cut and once and for all make it clear that the stock speculators are managing monetary policy. Personally, I don't see how this economy can adjust when so many of the particiapant's decision making process has been so severely compromised. I'll stop there, before launching into a tirade of disgust regarding irresponsible, politically influenced monetary policy and sounding like you-know-who. Has anyone ever heard that the Feds main charge was to assure price stability?? Wondering if I just made that one up. Regards

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (56)	2/21/2001 5:33:43 PM
From: seminole	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Gee, I had hoped this was the bottom. I have been looking for some base building and a test of the Jan low before I start buying again. One off the wall bottom event would be dismissal of the MSFT case. Sorry for the post, just lurking.

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (56)	2/21/2001 6:44:23 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Ed, I received this from a friend who manages a large fund and wanted to share it with the new thread. Dear , I travelled to Switzerland last week and spoke at a hedge fund conference in Geneva before heading up to Zurich. Some impressions: >>The proliferation of hedge funds evident from this conference is really quite staggering. It suggests to me a shakeout in the future and tremendous market volatility in the interim. >>As the risk free return sinks lower and lower, the demand for performance with minimal downside is growing exponentially. This combination of forces is pushing a wall of money into hedge funds which are perceived to be able to provide supra-normal returns with no risk. >>There are more than 6000 hedge funds of all types which account for $400 billion in assets. This does not include leverage. >>Long-short equity funds are the "flavor of the month", as their managers market the funds as effective ways to control downside risk. However, the speed with which money has rotated out of tech and into non-tech, the prospect for more sector shifts and the potential for leverage all point to significant volatility ahead. >>What is remarkable is the number of times a stock changes hands. In order for a hedge fund to short a stock, the stock first needs to be borrowed. Initially, this comes from a large fund but the stock then gets recycled. The average velocity of circulation is about 10 times. The risk with all this is the possibility of fund redemption triggered by a bear market which forces hedge funds to cover what could be money losing positions. >>More comments on Europe in this week's fax. Best Regards