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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42465)	2/21/2001 4:50:31 PM
From: Berk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, first let me say that I admire your long AMAT strategy, but want to ask why do you short it? It would seem to me that after the stock has corrected as far as it has that you run the risk of a short squeeze. If I ran a technology fund and I thought the market had bottomed, AMAT would be on my buy list over all other semi eq players because of its industry dominance and market liquidity. At the same time the smaller semi equip companies run the risk of being crushed by AMAT so the market sells them off to extremely low valuations, i.e. they are a better short. Any thoughts?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (42465)	2/21/2001 11:48:20 PM
From: trilobyte	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, there is something interesting happening here... if I remember correctly, AMAT stock peaked in 03/2000-04/2000. However, bookings peaked in 10/2000. So in this "cycle", the stock anticipated by 10 months the begining of the slowdown. I think this move of the stock caught most posters on this thread by surprise as in past cycles, the stock price and the underlying financial performance in the sector were more in sync. Now, most posters on this thread call the current relative strength in AMAT unfounded and irrational. Well, maybe whoever sold at the right time has now re-entered the stock, 6-10 months in anticipation of a resumption of booking increases and is willing to hold through the rought sailing the nasdaq is is going through. If making money in the stock market was a rational exercise, it would be too easy, right? good luck, Trilobyte