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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berk who wrote (653)	2/21/2001 7:34:55 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

FEB 21 INDEX UPDATE -------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - CLASS 1 BUY SPX - CLASS 1 BUY OEX - CLASS 1 BUY NAZ - CLASS 1 BUY NDX - CLASS 1 BUY VIX - borderline CLASS 1 SELL(inverse to market) VXN - intraday borderline CLASS 1 SELL(inverse to market), closed in over bought region 5 DAY TRIN - 6.26 CBOE PUT:CALL - .72 Per my short-term technicals I have clear/firm CLASS 1 BUY signals. Also the short-term readings on the VIX/VXN, 5-DAY TRIN are lining up nicely with the CLASS 1 BUYs on the indices. The PUT:CALL RATIO could be a bit higher to line up better, but is not totally out of sync. So if the CLASS 1 BUY signals work, some sort of bounce should start tomorrow/latest FRIDAY. If there is no significant bounce tomorrow, at least the indices should close with DOJIs/SPINNING TOPs/some sort of an indecision day, where the indices does not close right at the intraday lows. If the index(s) closes right at the intraday lows then that would be the first hint of a possible NEGATED CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL, of course requiring further confirmation. Now here comes the bad stuff. CROWS - CROWS - CROWS - ALL OVER THE PLACE. Last night LEE mentioned the possibility of another 3-CROWs on the OEX, and I said I doubted that since my short-term technicals were so low. DARN, not only did we get 3-BLACK CROWs on the OEX, but also on the SPX, and RUT, and an imperfect/questionable one on the DOW. CROWS - CROWS - CROWS - EVERYWHERE - THAT JUST AINT GOOD!!!! To top it off, they were "IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWS" which is even more negative than the norm 3-BLACK CROWs, and the formations on the SPX/OEX/RUT are almost PERFECT. This is the first time I recall having so many CROWS occuring on the same day. Subjectively, I have to say that this is really ominous having so many CROWS on the same day. For those who are not familiar with the IDENTICAL 3-BLACK CROWs, I feel that this CANDLESTIC PATTERN is the most reliable and most negative. Most candlestic patterns are very short-term, but with the 3-CROWS, it has a lingering/longer-lasting negative influence. It is also common that after the 3rd day of the 3-BLACK CROWs, there is a small rebound before the selling resumes/intensifies. A good example of this is the 3-CROWs that occured on the OEX just last week (FEB 7,8,9). Concerning the 3-CROWs, there are 2 possibilities. The first one is that the market just continues straight down into a capitualation type of selloff, or the market bounces tomorrow/FRIDAY and the selling resumes/intensifies the following week. The NAZ/NDX did not get the 3-CROWs, so there may be a hint that the SPX/OEX/DOW/RUT sells off with some sort of rotation into the NAZ. Right now there is no firm evidence of that yet, just a bit of speculation. I was actually planning on adding some more long positions today but when I saw so many 3-CROWs, I said forget it. If there is a bounce rather than continuous selling, I will be closing/hedging my long positions. I realise that if GREENSPAN steps in, such could reverse the market back up, but I will just stick to my technicals which are telling me that things should get worse before getting better.