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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (11477)	2/21/2001 6:40:58 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Hi M: I think its more than 6 months but even if its only 6 months this buys us how much time to come up with an alternative source? An additional 2 years. We have to think this one through. Based on your #'s we use 20mb / day (the low estimate for the oil is 3.5B / 180 days). Right now we import between 20 and 25% (how i came up with the 2 years) and are now paying $30 /b. With such a large dependency we are at the whim of others. What happens if we have Iraq & Iran take their oil off market? What happens if China continues to grow and utilize more oil? Ditto for the rest of the industrial economys? yes prices go thru the roof. So at least so far we should be in agreement. If prices go thru the roof the economy tanks, people are out of work and we have inflation. Of course the equity markets will be in bad shape the the populace will be screaming for the government to do something. Solution - we need to increase supply and decrease demand. Well see the answer is easy. Its always the details though. The time to start this is now though, not when we are in a crisis. One alone won't be enough both areas should be addressed. Now if we go by the environmental arguement any supply increases will have to be from imports (similar to CA with the energy, don't do it here). Of course this still leaves us open to price spikes. We can of course use our might to acquire the properties. This is something the US has not done in its history but wars have been fought over a lot less. Decrease demand. We'll the best is to cut the gas in cars so we either lower driving or increase fuel efficency (or both). Both tough since people insist on driving and the auto markets profits are from the gas guzzlers. So we need better engines too. I think the best answer is hydrogen and the sun's energy but it will take time and money to develop what ever the answer is. A good way is with research tax credits (grants waste too much, although they can also be used, but a business with credits has the incentive). I also support the business people and inovators of the country whether they are oil croonies or router developers. They do a better job of utilizing resources than letting the goverment try and solve the problem (for many reasons). Now I still fell the EPA has a place since we know all business try and maximize profits and the EPA has to make sure they are cognizant of the environment. Tim

To: mishedlo who wrote (11477)	2/22/2001 9:46:59 AM
From: Bruce A. Thompson	Respond to of 30051

Mishedlo, 6 months would be gone in 6 months That would have to assume that as a result of the new production all other sources of oil production and distribution available to the US immediately ceased to function. Our problem is as a percentage of total use the country today relies on the importation of oil at over twice the volume we were importing at the time of the 70's Arab embargo. We and our economy are virtual slaves to the Arabs and it is the environmentalists fault. When was the last time a major domestic find was exploited? When was the last time a new refinery was built? Drilling for NG is every bit as dirty as drilling for oil. No problems there, politically. Why? The mind set of the left coast has been, and is ruining our economy so a few people can feel good about themselves. It is time that we all accept the fact that if you want computers, you have to drill for oil or resign ourselves and our economy to the whims of the Arabs. BT P.S. I have nothing against Arabs. If I were in their shoes, you would be paying $4.50 per gallon right now.