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To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (10640)	2/21/2001 6:41:55 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

The Corvis' of the world who did the same thing with Williams and Broadwing, etc. will get the same treatment in due course. Ahem, are you trying to pull back the curtains from the latest Wizard of Oz look-alike, Peter Huber? Now is it due course, last course or just desserts? And have you seen Chocolat? I'm thinking of going this evening...... on a full stomach. <g> Who's Art Hogan and why should I care.... other than that he agrees with me about this ain't '87 or '98. My personal opinion is that this is more akin to 69-70. We are in the first wave of despair at our ridiculous euphoria. There is an interesting cycle that gets mentioned on the Bonds, Commodities and Currencies thread. It is a 4 year pattern. We are in the first down leg here, after the bubble. If you look at the Nikkei, the Thai, Indonesian and Malay markets, they all had a bit of recovery from the Oct. '97 debacle. Then they tanked again last year. So, we may grind up in the later part of the year, but there's no assurance we are out of the woods. It is useful for the newbies on this thread to think about what a friend of mine told me about 73-74. She was invested in the bluest of the blue chips. In early '73, she says, you couldn't buy the blues for less than a P/E of 12. But mid '74 you couldn't sell the blues for more than a P/E of 4. What is the P/E of AVNX, JDSU, BRCM, AMCC etc. today?? Oh, never mind.... Best, Ray :)

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (10640)	2/21/2001 8:16:16 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

I have to agree. I want it be clean and obvious, it's not going to be that way. Look at the string of lower lows the naz is making, clearly the selling is organized. So, it's anyone's guess when the market will find a reason to go higher since an obvious selling climax seems not in the cards. You might think the selling we have now is hard to watch. Wait till the market grinds it out over days, weeks, months of hardly any movement searching for a reason to go higher with money of the sidelines becoming entrenched and happy to be out. Greg