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Technology Stocks : PALM - The rebirth of Palm Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (3870)	2/21/2001 9:11:15 PM
From: KevRupert	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6784

David, great post. As always - thank you. So many posts (including mine!) are mindless chatter, but your posts have so much thought/insight/research/computations -- that your ideas clearly stand out as legitmate and non-hype.

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (3870)	2/21/2001 9:56:00 PM
From: Tom R. Clarksburg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6784

David, nice analysis, but my research and financial model speaks a slightly different conclusion. I will be short because I have to go to bed early because I need to catch a plane at 6:10AM tomorrow morning. Ok, Your ASP number is a bit lower than mine. This is because according to my own sales channel check on monthly online firms, I can see that PALM has shipped between 400,000 and 500,000 Palm VIIx since January 14th. This is precisely when they promised in the last CC that they would have PALM VIIx available in large quantities. If you look on Cnet, you will see that several onlines actually post the number of PALM VIIx in stock at any one point. After viewing several and calling several, I can see that the average online firm of the 40 or so on CNet, have a NEW average inventory of 10,000 units each. During December and up til January 14th 90 % of those online retailers were " out of stock" so a major inventory event transpired after January 14th that will bring PALM's ASP within the $220-230 range (or higher)for this quarter. I check on those retailers 3 times a week and can say that on average each retailer is selling between 150 and 200 units of the VIIX per day--and up to 300 units per day for some retailers since last Thursday's announcement of a $100 rebate. Just like to say that I think you will be surprised by Palm's sales in this quarter. My model is at $518 million in revenues....of this revenue, $71 million will come from sales of PALM assessories and about $25 million from Palm OS royalties PLUS cont & access fees. The rest or $422 million will come from device sales of which almost 50% will be Palm VIIX sales. Well, have to go to sleep. I won't be able to post again until next Sunday, as I plan on being back home Sunday afternoon. Regards TOM RC

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (3870)	2/22/2001 2:14:37 AM
From: FNS	Respond to of 6784

Thanks, David. Looking forward to your updates. Given the bearish impact of this market, PALM has been holding pretty well, now at a double bottom support. I checked the charts on RIMM and HAND cause these and PALM are major sector players. RIMM looks like it could sell off further ....I doubt that it can sustain an outer space PE. As for HAND, it has broken and may need to find a bottom and base out...and being commodity driven, HAND is apt to be more vulnerable. PALM acclaims a more potential growth scenario, imo, via it's licensed OS so it has a better shot at basing in here and turning up as soon as NASD turns around. Unfortunately, NASD may see 2250 tomorrow and that means most techs will be damaged....possibly via a quick shakeout or just continued eroding till a real bottom is put in place! Where??? No one knows ... But I'm sure the experts (back seat drivers) on CNBC will have all the answers! IMHO! fns

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (3870)	2/22/2001 7:37:57 AM
From: Souze	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6784

Palm's guidance for Q3 which was EPS = zero David, I think you're wrong on this number, by a penny. I heard Palm give guidance of 1 cent for Q3 in their Q2-results cc, and I was listening intently for that number. Before the cc, consensus estimates for Q3 had been 1 cent, and I had had a hard time believing so low of a number given that the quarter includes December holiday sales, so I listened for Palm's guidance, and low and behold it was 1 cent. FWIW.