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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (9033)	2/22/2001 7:08:52 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

Gersh: questions allowed? After reading Donald Sew's chart-observations I got doubts about what's the reason - what's effect. DS wrote: "I realise that if GREENSPAN steps in, such could reverse the market back up, but I will just stick to my technicals which are telling me that things should get worse before getting better." In a more universal meaning the same sentence: "If anything cause the market to reverse I will just stick on my technicals". Hm. Did we get a "crow" yesterday because SUNW & KO has been downgraded or did f.e. ML downgrade SUNW because they stuck on their technicals? Another example for the week basic logic of such observations? Have I to collect some data about crows just before rallies? What would you prefer: daily, weekly or monthly charts? (I did not check that actually but I think the probability of bad days in front of a reversal is not that bad...) Or, how about economy-numbers? We all assume that a certain number is a certain indicator for inflation. We all are sure that inflation just can be fought be rate-increases. (Of course we forget that 6-12 month "incubation period" because we love to react immediately.) You understand what I mean - lot's of rules, doesn't matter whether economy, t/a, nutrition or astrology - use to turn out to be the biggest mistake just after a few years. Take a critical look and you don't have to wait so long. Markets don't think logically - the same fundmanager upgrades one day and downgrades a few days later (of course without changed fundamentals). He himself has good reasons - but what causes investors to believe him, a proven liar? It cannot be trust - but it can be worries that (all) other shareholders will follow him. A stampede of switch-off-braines. The day after all look at CNBC and hope to hear why they bought/sold. Given this the real important question for our own decision is: how many influence has f.e. f/a compared to t/a in decisions of markets? How many influence has a real reason compared to published guru-feelings? Back to DS: His observations have a high level of "any-houd" - then and only then when a majority of shareholders use the same tool with same parameters you can hope to get a more than occasionally reaction on your predictions. And, again, this was not quality-prophecy but believing of a majority in a former agreed type of decision-tools. I know, I'm quite wrong here with you "Dudes" when I doubt in the firm firmament of economy-science; better I predicted the weather of the coming year, day by day, region by region, degree by degree with hundreds of tables filled with color-lines instead predicting that US will see more climatic catastrophes than ever next year. Kostolany wrote: "Stop believing in analysts and gurus (add: ...and CNBC and "proven" economy-rules and "scientific" coffee grounds reading) - start thinking yourself". If any of you like to discuss, here some recent questions: - which strategy does f.e. ML follow with f.e. his sunw-downgrading? (I thought most funds were highly invested?) Wanted they buy sunw again yesterday? - how strong is that bunch of banks/investors playing the downside-game? - is there a significant bigger (than in former years) OI of calls forcing writers to press the underlying down optimizing their results? - how far will they go? Up to "strong sell"-recommendations for every blue-chip? - About 25% of US-citicens are shareholders - guess, most of them lost a lot last time: which influence will this bring in markets longterm? - Assumed a real, longterm recession of US-economy: Where could be a safe place to bring the rest of money to?