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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (31630)	2/21/2001 10:08:17 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

To:dennis michael patterson who wrote (675) From: Paul Shread Wednesday, Feb 21, 2001 9:50 PM Respond to of 687 Ed Downs thinks 2250 will hold: NASDAQ and OEX Yesterday, we indicated we were, "watching the last support level at 2,250 and hoping it holds. Good chance it will." As of today's close, we are right at this number. Will the NASDAQ push through and "melt down" from here? Unlikely. Now that we are hitting two year lows, someone will start accumulating. It's like anything - nobody wants to be first. But once the herd begins moving, we will be back on track for at least a modicum of upside. As with the Dow, I would wait for a higher low to form. The OEX is now at critical support of 650 as well. Same story there - should reverse, and we are watching for the definitive signs by virtue of movement up through the primary trendline in the intraday charts. ** In Summary: As I indicated yesterday, "medium to long term, (we are in) a holding pattern with a negative bias." That's an understatement. How much more negative can we get? I think this could be it. Why? Because 2,250 is a very critical level on the NASDAQ. And, 650 is major support on the OEX, going back nearly two years. Finally, 10,600 is the center of the recent consolidation on the Dow. We are carefully watching for any sign of a rally here. When we get it, short term Longs are called for until the first retracement, then medium term longs. We will keep you advised on what we see, and when we think the condition for medium term longs is once again at hand.