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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shadowman who wrote (47786)	2/21/2001 11:56:56 PM
From: prophet_often	Respond to of 57584

I agree, however as Mr Jones says in his article that may be "an issue for historians rather than investors -- investors' sole concern now is the aftermath of the collapse.."

To: shadowman who wrote (47786)	2/22/2001 12:49:05 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

"Cashing In My Chips" I,too, read the piece by Briefing.com and share the sentiment expressed by "prophet often" and Dennis Murphy --there will be no "V" bottom this time. While the NASDAQ may have a sharp bounce on a given day, I am less concerned about missing a one-day bounce than I am about slowly bleeding my portfolio dry in a bear market. Up until now, I did not think we were in a true bear market; rather, I thought we were in a tech bear market, with the S&P and Dow holding up well. Wednesday's selloff in the Dow and the break below an important technical support level of 1280 in the S&P have convinced me otherwise. Looking at my portfolio, I have been out of tech since January 24th and widely diversified between banks, financials, insurers, healthcare, retailers, etc. There are as many in the red as are in the black, and the ones that are "up" are not up very much. I am stopping out of new buys with increasing frequency and recent tech value buys have already stopped out (8% stop loss). I have decided to sit out this market for the next 2-3 months until: (1) the next earnings warning season and Q1 reporting season are out of the way; (2) the third Fed rate cut is on board; (3) the mid-March through mid-April tax-related selling has passed; (4)Nasdaq hits or breaks below the 2000 level. You may call it "panic selling" or "capitulation" or whatever. However, as Rande says: "Plan your trade and trade your plan". My plan was to exit the market at the first sign that the NASDAQ malaise had spread to the general market; I believe that has happened on Wednesday. At tomorrow's open, I will be 100% cash and will only re-enter to very selectively buy specific stocks that look VERY oversold. I believe there will be ample opportunity to reenter the market when the market tells me it is time to reenter. Unlike last year, this year I will "listen to the market". Trade cautiously, both long and short, my friends. This has the making of another very long year. DlphcOracl