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To: AllansAlias who wrote (70108)	2/22/2001 12:02:32 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 436258

I couldn't agree more Allan, I believe complacency is still alive and well as you mention. The wishful thinking that the Fed will intervene and save the day, the hope that "support" will hold, the rationalizing away of an index P/E close to 100 for the stocks that have earnings. We're not even at concern yet much less capitulation... pretty pictures? where??<g> thanks for the good continued (and realistic) perspective you offer on many fronts

To: AllansAlias who wrote (70108)	2/22/2001 1:14:24 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Allan I do not get insulted easily. I base my opinion on 2 things 1)Rydex ratios which are now quite bearish(which is bullish, and dictates bad sentiment). 2)The last Aiii survey was only 30% bulls. I follow the RYDEX numbers with JT pretty regularly, and at this point they are at a point that dictates a bounce. I am not disagreeing that in april-may we get next leg down, I just think we bounce here for a tradeable rally. We have had 2-3 capitulation ST bottoms that all displayed similear properties 1)Rydex more bearish 2)AIII bullish 1 month decline(though it didnt last) 3)Hit a known resistence, broke then rallied back on strong volume. If # 3 happens ill buy the scalp. Japan had big revershal tonight, will we? I dont know??? When I say capitulation I am not saying the end of the bear rally, I am saying bounce in a trading range leading to a bottom. I will say that BKX is the tell, If it doesnt recover big tomorrow then it could get BK ugly. I just watched 80' Hockey USA upset piece on HBO. Reminded me HOW bad sentiment really was in 1980 before the bull started in 82. It was such a memorable piece of my childhood, it almost brought me to tears.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (70108)	2/22/2001 1:46:32 AM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<I pray that I will not be stubborn and will get on board fairly soon after we have made the turn. I am not a permabear and would be just as happy to be long.>> Beautiful. The Desiderata of the lesser dumbazz bear -g- I've been basically 100% cash since 8/2000, except for occasional scalps for entertainment. Very happily retired on my tech clownbucks. The thought I might miss the REAL bottom, lo these many months away, is my only fear. I'm thinking I'd like to buy AMAT around 10-12. Book value is $9.28, and that's the traditional bottom of bad semi equipment busts.