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To: foundation who wrote (9364)	2/22/2001 8:43:52 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

re: TDMA to GSM - Conjecture from EMC >> End of the Road for TDMA? EMC reviews commitments to move to GSM 22-Feb-2001 EMC Cellular EMC presented its viewpoints on the potential for an enlarged GSM family with the inclusion of TDMA operators at its World Cellular Seminar at the GSM World Congress in Cannes. The focus on the TDMA-GSM migration follows AT&T's decision in November 2000 to move to a GSM overlay on its TDMA-8/19 national network. A brief analysis of the world TDMA subscriber base indicates the strong geographical link with North and South America. Country Operator Q4 2000 TDMA total USA AT&T 13.9m USA Cingular Wireless 11.2m Mexico Telcel 5.4m Brazil combined total all TDMA ops 12.7m World Total 64.5m Analysis of TDMA operators alreay commited to GSM overlays, indicates that more than one third of the world's TDMA base of 64.5m has already commited to a move towards GSM as outlined below. Operators already commited to GSM overlay of TDMA: Country Operator Announcement date TDMA subs base Q4 2000 Canada Rogers AT&T Jan 2001 1.3m USA AT&T Nov 2000 13.9m Mexico Telcel Dec 2000 5.4m El Salvador Personal Nov 2000 0.16m Argentina Personal Dec 2000 1.3m Bolivia Entel Nov 2000 0.23m Although no public commitment has yet been made by Cingular Wireless on a move towards GSM, Mike Woolfrey, EMC's North American analyst suggests that the operator "is almost certain" to follow the same path to GSM as led by AT&T, but doesn't want to be seen to be taking a lead from its rival, AT&T, although it is more likely that it is still finding its identity following the SBC-BellSouth merger which closed in October 2000. AT&T's affiliates have confirmed their commitment to overlay their respective TDMA networks with GSM. AT&T's partners have also made no confirmation of a move to GSM, but are also considered to certainly make the move. Taking Cingular Wireless and AT&T's affiliates and partners, the total TDMA base looking to convert to GSM is over 50% of the world's TDMA market today. Beyond North America, the TDMA-GSM focus will shift towards Latin America and the impact that the AT&T decision will have on existing TDMA networks in the region. Personal in El Salvador has already launched a GSM-1900 network since November 2000, and has stopped commercialising its TDMA-1900 network, whilst Entel in Bolivia has decided to use its dormant 1900MHz licence to offer GSM services alongside its existing TDMA-800 network. Looking towards the ownership structure of both operators, reveals strong GSM players Telecom Italia and Telefonica. In fact it is these very players who will most lilley shape the GSM future of the continent. Key foreign investors in the region reveals strong GSM-orientated players, such as Telefonica and Telecom Italia, and TDMA-players, BellSouth and SBC, joint partners in Cingular Wireless. There is a strong likelihood that these players will follow the same TDMA-GSM migration path, thus ensuring full seamless roaming with their other GSM investments. Some of the Latin American investments are CDMA networks, and it is envisaged that out of the two options available to the operators - either follow the CDMA 3G migration path and wait until seamless interoperability is available between W-CDMA and cdma2000, or commence the process all over again. Investor Investments Total subs Telefonica Argentina, Brazil, 2.3m Chile, Guatelmala, of which 3m CDMA Mexico, Peru, Puerto Rico, Venezuela TIM/Telecom Italia/STET Argentina, Brazil, 6.6m Bolivia, Chile, no CDMA networks Peru, Venezuela BellSouth Argentina, Brazil, 11.2m Chile, Ecuador, of which 3.9m CDMA Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela In terms of forecasting, EMC makes the following assumptions on the TDMA-GSM migration path: -The intial focus will be on providing GSM services at 1900MHz, and whilst Nokia has made announcements on commitment to GSM at the 800MHz range further - opening the TDMA world to GSM, GSM-800 has not been accounted for in the current forecast. -Initial market launches of GSM-1900 will focus on cities and urban areas. -Single mode GSM-1900 network launches are predicted for commercial service in Q4 2001. -Further GAIT developments in terms of multi-mode TDMA-GSM handsets are envisaged to occur in Q1 2002, with true commerical launches by Q1 2003 at the earliest. Further research at the GSM World Congress reveals that the major vendors who have made tentative commitments towards GAIT developments made no indication that terminal development has progressing any further since the AT&T announcement. The possibility of these TDMA operators fully migrating their respective TDMA bases to a single-mode GSM/GPRS network is being touted as a more likely option, although no vendor or operator was able to comment further. << - Eric -

To: foundation who wrote (9364)	2/22/2001 8:52:44 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Ben, << reduction in handset shipment estimates by Kyocera Corp to 450 mln from 500 mln >> That's a little scary. QUALCOMM has a 90 million handset forecast on the board. 90 million handsets is 20% of 450 million. CDMA has 12% worldwide market share. At 500 million, 90 million is 18% of worldwide handset shipments and is pretty darned aggressive. At a consensus 525 million 90 million is 17% of worldwide handset shipments and is perhaps realistic although still aggressive. This forecast from a vendor specializing in CDMA? Scary. - Eric -

To: foundation who wrote (9364)	2/22/2001 11:56:12 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Ben, << 08:33 ET Nokia (NOK) 24.25: Stock fell more than 5% in European trading; decline being attributed to reduction in handset shipment estimates by Kyocera Corp to 450 mln from 500 mln. >> >> Market Report -- In Play (QCOM) February 22, 2001 09:53:00 AM ET Briefing.com QUALCOMM (QCOM) 67 15/16 -3 5/16 (-4.7%): Early weakness in QCOM shares on news that Kyocera Corp lowered handset guidance to 450 mln from 500 mln. Kyocera recently purchased QCOM's handset unit. << OUCH! I suspected as much. Man, am I having a fine day! Everybody gets a turn in the pickle barrel. QCOM has held up extremely well for the last 12 months until recently. Given the overall negativity in wireless sector, any report of this type is going to damage the sector. Kyocera's claim to fame is NOT GSM, so making a projection of 9% overall handset growth for the industry ... which obviously is going to precede some downsizing of their overall forecast is NOT good. The sector needs some good news ... regardless of technology. The handset lineup across technologies is stale. GPRS is late ... but so is 1xRTT, and both of these technologies have the potential of breathing a little life into the corpse. Here is the scorecard since 12/31/99 MOT - 64.8% QCOM - 62.4% NOK - 52.2% ERICY - 50.5% Here is the scorecard since 12/31/00 NOK - 47.5% ERICY - 27.4% QCOM - 20.3% MOT - 15.3% Lets hope somebody is shipping handsets (or chips this quarter). On balance, although there were interesting occurrences at the 3GSM World Congress, I could spot nothing that will warm up the polar cap on the short haul. - Eric -