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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (752)	2/22/2001 12:09:37 PM
From: zcole	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

You bring up a very good point, Don. Witnessing the apparent eagerness with which traders and/or investors threw money back into the Naz starting at around 10:30, I would conclude that we certainly cannot be finished with PHASE 3. Zane

To: donald sew who wrote (752)	2/22/2001 12:13:34 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I think a rally of more than three weeks would indicate the end of a phase, IMHO, so I guess this would be Phase 3. Not quite sure how low we go, though; I think 2028 is a good target, the peak before the last Nasdaq bear.

To: donald sew who wrote (752)	2/22/2001 12:18:59 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Donald...according to elliot wave theory there should be 5 waves down from the Nasdaq peak of which 1,3, and 5 are the down waves with wave 2 and 4 being corrective. The decline from the highs to the May lows last year was wave 1. The correction from then until early Sept was wave 2. Since then we have been what many elliot waves technicians are calling wave 3, which is also subdivided into 5 waves. Wave 1 of 3 down was from Sept 2000 to early January 2001. Wave 2 of 3 was the month long correction. It is assumed that we are now in wave 3 of 3 down which is the most brutal and we have only completed wave 1 of 3 of 3 down. Still a ways to go assumably... This would be considered the 2nd phase of a bear market. The third phase should pretty much bring a distaste of the stock markets to everyone. With 60% bullish consensus still and many trying to pick bottoms, we are no where near that.

To: donald sew who wrote (752)	2/22/2001 12:53:51 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Respond to of 52237

Donald, it seems that many are thinking about this very thing now. IBD today (about yesterday close)- High-Volume Selling Hits Major Averages Investor's Business Daily It seemed like the 1970s all over again Wednesday. The stock market sold off as inflation climbed and profits stalled. Consumer prices turned in their highest jump in 10 months. Electricity and natural gas drove the bulk of the increase, which could thwart the Fed’s aggressive interest rate cuts. While stagflation may be too ugly a word to describe the economy at this point, the stock market still looked terrible. All three major indexes declined in heavier volume, a sign that institutions were unloading shares. They’ve logged sporadic distribution the past three weeks. The S&P 500 undercut its Dec. 21 low by less than a point. The big-cap index finished down 1.9% at 1255.27, its lowest close since October 1999. The Nasdaq didn’t look much better. The tech-heavy index came within six points of its Jan. 3 low before closing down 2.1%. The big-tech Nasdaq 100 set a 52-week low, following in the footsteps of IBD’s Mutual Fund Index, which took out its prior low on Tuesday. Blue chips also fell hard as the Dow Jones industrials dropped 1.9%. The average sliced through its 200-day moving average, returning below the long-term line for the first time in three weeks. That puts all three major indexes below their 200-day lines. In a healthy market, the indexes have no problem trading above this moving average. Most NYSE stocks remain above their 200-day lines. But the broad market has been showing some cracks recently. The advance-decline line, which had flattened out the past two weeks, is moving lower this week. Broad gauges like the unweighted Value Line index dropped hard for the second day in a row. It had been holding fairly tight while the Nasdaq and S&P declined the past two weeks. Is the bear market starting its third leg down? They usually play out in three phases. The first occurred from the March 10 peak to May’s low. The second leg kicked in from September to December. Another move down wouldn’t be surprising, especially since investors have remained largely bullish through the entire sell-off. They weren’t ready to turn tail Wednesday. The weekly survey of bullish investment advisers climbed back above 60%, a level that has proved troublesome for the market. The put-call volume ratio increased to 0.72. Option players bought more bearish puts Wednesday compared with Tuesday’s level. But they’re not yet showing the fear usually associated with market bottoms. This isn’t a time to be overextended on margin. Few stocks have broken out and even fewer are still working. Bargain hunting for big techs is downright dangerous. As much as the big names have already fallen, they’re still capable of rolling over again. Take Sun Microsystems, which tumbled 2.63 to a 17-month low of 19.63. It’s now 69% below its September high, a sell-off more commonly associated with unprofitable Internets. Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock and lowered profit estimates, in part because server inventories are at a three-year high, the brokerage said. The company has scheduled a conference call for Thursday, raising fears of a profit warning.