Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (772)	2/22/2001 1:17:35 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 52237

Don: Part of d hays is his allocation model. Right now I think only 15% is in tech (from zilch prior to 12/22) and this includes NO telecom like lu, csco. I agree there is fear but how much fear is there out in the general polulation. IMO no where near enough. Right now people are holding cause they feel tech will come back (it will) but the come back level may be much lower than todays levels. The news casts are still too bullish. Seriously. Part of Hays feelings is the sector rotation. This is being caused by the J Vincik firing from Fidelity where managers have to at least match the indexes and taking bets or being cautious can cost the fund manager his job. i.e. they need to stay fully invested or risk underperforming. He thinks once the redemptions start (they've started but not significant levels, yet). He's also looking at the nikkei dow and how it had 3 rallies in the same area the naz is now b/4 the final roll over. Right now with the over sold market conditions, bullish sentiment falling below 40% (it ran to 60 from 30 in jan) the arms index showing fear, fed pumping in liquidity he expects the next rally back to 2800 area (figuring this is where we'll be on the over bought condition) before we fall back b/4 the final rally to 3000 (maybe to 3250) before rolling over. Have to go

To: donald sew who wrote (772)	2/22/2001 3:02:01 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

I'll weigh in with Granville's phase guide. Most signs point to this being the middle to late part of Bear phase 2. ______________________ Bear Phase 2: A/D line: Turns sharply higher on strong mid-phase rally, but move turns out to be transitory, thereafter breaking down. NH/NL: New highs temporarlily outnumber new lows, but give way to a bearish pattern of increasing new lows. Dow 30: One or two Dow stocks actually get back to new highs, but are unable to move up further. Transports: Transports rally, but fall short of the peak. They fail to confirm the industrials, or vice-versa. Time: 7 to 14 months have passed since the bull market peak. DJI 200 day mov avg: Coming down hard, which makes it easy to deceptively penetrate briefly on mid phase rally. News: News has soured, and market responds with sharp declines. Public continues to buy on all reactions, still confident that bull market can be revived. GM: GM is unable to tack on more than a few pts in mid phase rally. 200 dma is trending sharply lower. _________ A few Bear Phase 3 characteristics, which make me think that we're still in Phase 2: A/D: Zig-zags to new lows NH/NL: New highs running close to zero, while new lows are in the several hundred range. Transports: Falling rapidly, recording new bear market lows. Time: 14-21 months past bull market top. News: Public has tuned completely sour on the market, and sell on all bad news. Extremely pessimistic attitude. _______________ So in a historic sense, I don't think we have seen the bottom. I would suspect that the bear bottom is still 6-9 months out. Regards, TW