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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gus who wrote (12305)	2/22/2001 6:30:43 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17183

Valuation: Management has just said that forward 12M EPS (YE 12/01) might be a bit lower. Maybe 0.98, instead of 1.03. Around a dollar, anyway, no major revision. And the stock has just crashed through former support, so it now needs to establish a new trading range, form a base, before heading back up. I won't get into when the upturn might be, because I think that depends on what happens with the overall economy, and I don't think that's knowable yet. That is, the best we can do now is try to guess the bottom. Timing the upturn isn't possible, but I don't think it'll be soon. It's going to take some time before the forward earnings stream reliability is restored. At least a couple of quarters, maybe more. The bottom, it seems to me, is when the last momentum guesser has sold, and Value buyers step in. When will that happen? If 35% is a reasonable estimate of expected future longterm EPS growth rate, and the forward EPS is $1, then you have a PEG of 1, at a stock price of 35, about where the stock bounced today. I caught the falling knife, buying EMC at 50. Obviously, I was wrong about support at that level. So, I'm going to sell on strength, and wait for a new support level to form. If we bounce again in the mid-30s, I'll probably buy.

To: Gus who wrote (12305)	2/22/2001 10:01:29 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 17183

Thanks.....btw- could you name me some of those photonics guys that you (analyst) think may go out of business? Tradeable names? BTW- I think EMC hit a pretty nice short-term (and possibly long-term)bottom today...short of a Naz going under 2000 (and not returning) 34 should be pretty difficult to rupture..I'll be looking for the price wars you indicated, however.. On other thread, someone mentioned that EMC is sitting right on 1991-2001 trendline...wow.....Intel too apparently....Csco has apparently already broke its (but I can't confirm)...good luck....have greatly enjoyed (and benefitted from your highly informative posts in the past)