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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (7651)	2/22/2001 7:44:03 PM
From: Cooters	Respond to of 196608

Toshiba Plans 20% Annual Growth in Chip Sales in Next 3 Years --From AOl.-- Cooters Tokyo, Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Toshiba Corp., the second- biggest maker of semiconductors, will grow faster than the industry in the next three years as demand climbs for Toshiba chips used in advanced mobile phones, a company executive said. Toshiba plans to boost chip sales an average of 20 percent a year through the fiscal year ending in March 2004, said Yoshihide Fujii, general manager for semiconductor strategic planning. That compares with estimated industry sales growth of 11.5 percent a year, according to research firm Dataquest Inc. Toshiba's projection comes amid a slowdown in chip sales that caused the Tokyo-based company to cut its full-year earnings forecast earlier this month. Expected continuing declines in chip prices may make Toshiba's target unrealistic, an analyst said. ``It will be quite difficult for Toshiba to achieve that goal,'' said Akira Minamikawa, a WestLB Securities Pacific Ltd. analyst. ``Demand for memory chip capacity will double each year, but unit prices will fall.'' Toshiba said earlier this month its semiconductor sales will rise 22 percent to 1.12 trillion yen ($9.6 billion) in the year ending March 31 from 930 billion yen a year earlier. Advanced Phones To maintain its 20 percent growth rate, Toshiba is betting on demand for new mobile phone technology that allows users to transmit moving pictures and music up to 200 times faster than is possible now. Handsets providing such features will require the greater storage capacity that Toshiba's flash memory chips provide, Toshiba's Fujii said. ``Our memory chips will undoubtedly be used in most mobile phones in three years,'' he said. Toshiba also is betting that a recent weakening of chip sales and prices will be short-lived. While figures aren't available, industry chip sales probably have declined in recent months from the year-ago periods ``because PC and electronics makers have big inventories of chips,'' said Katsuyuki Jo, a Dataquest semiconductor analyst. Toshiba believes the slump is nearing an end. ``Chip sales will hit bottom in the middle of this year, but then they will keep rising,'' Fujii said. Flash Memory Toshiba trails Intel Corp. in total chip sales but leads the industry with about half the market share of flash memory chips used in memory cards compatible with mobile phones, digital camcorders, digital still cameras and other devices. The fingernail-sized cards replace magnetic music tape and photo film. The company expects its sales of flash memory chips, which retain data when the power is off, to grow an average of 50 percent a year through March 2004, Fujii said. Sales of the chips will double to 80 billion yen in the year ending next month and reach 130 billion yen next year, the company says. Falling prices for the cards threaten those projections, analyst Minamikawa said. Memory cards with 64 megabytes of capacity, which can store about 60 minutes of music data or 50 digital still photos, cost about 10,000 yen. The price should fall to 2,000 yen by 2003 for devices using them ``to reach a reasonable number of consumers,'' Minamikawa said. ``But if that happens, Toshiba won't achieve its aggressive goal.'' Mobile Phone Risk Sales of the next wave of advanced mobile phones, featuring so-called W-CDMA technology -- or wideband code division multiple access -- may fall short of Toshiba's expectations as well. NTT DoCoMo Inc., the world's largest mobile phone company, will introduce W-CDMA in May. It says it will ship 150,000 of the handsets this year, less than 0.04 percent of the 413 million mobile phones shipped last When Europe, Hong Kong and other Asian countries introduce the latest technology in 2002, W-CDMA handset shipments will rise to ``at most 10 percent of overall mobile phones, which is still not much,'' Minamikawa said. Kyocera Corp., the world's ninth-biggest mobile phone maker, said yesterday industry handset shipments will be as few as 450 million units this year, down from earlier estimates of more than 500 million. Last month Nokia Oyj, the world's largest handset maker, reduced its estimate of shipments to 500 million units from 550 million. Feb/22/2001 19:21 ET

To: foundation who wrote (7651)	2/22/2001 7:57:36 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196608

The original article from FT which Reuters quoted..... news.ft.com Qualcomm warns of delay in 3G roll-out timetable By Dan Roberts Telecoms Correspondent Published: February 22 2001 21:38GMT \| Last Updated: February 22 2001 23:12GMT Qualcomm, the US electronics group behind third generation mobile phone technology, is warning of a two year delay in the roll-out timetable promised by European operators. Irwin Jacobs, founder and chief executive, predicted in an interview with the Financial Times that 3G services currently in development were not likely to be commercially viable until late 2004 or early 2005. His comments are likely to increase fears that operators have over-estimated the speed with which new internet and video services can be introduced on mobile phones. Most European operators have suggested 3G will be ready from 2002 onwards, and are already paying for unused radio spectrum earmarked for the services. However, Qualcomm, which claims to hold most of the intellectual patents on which the two main 3G standards are based, says there are serious technical hurdles still to be crossed before the standard used in Europe (known as wideband-CDMA) is ready. Mr Jacobs believes a rival 3G standard known as CDMA-2000 will be quicker to market, although its critics claim Qualcomm is biased against W-CDMA because of closer ties with CDMA-2000. Nevertheless, the pessimistic outlook for W-CDMA, which is also known as UMTS, was echoed on Thursday by Alcatel, the French telecoms equipment manufacturer. Michel Rahier, head of Alcatel's mobile phone business, told reporters at a mobile conference in Cannes that 3G handsets were likely to be launched in late 2003 or early 2004, a year later than previous forecasts, and would only take off in 2004 or 2005. Alcatel blamed this on a delay in orders caused by the recent collapse in telecoms shares. The timetable for 3G remains uncertain. Motorola, the US manufacturer, used the same industry event on Thursday to boast that it would have its 3G first handset available this year in Japan. Either way, the uncertainty is adding to nervousness among telecoms investors, particularly since an intermediary internet technology known as GPRS, or generation two and a half, is already experiencing delays. Qualcomm said this was a sign of delays to come and pointed to GPRS trials that showed calls were interrupted for up to 10 seconds when users moved from one radio mast to the next.

To: foundation who wrote (7651)	2/22/2001 10:05:07 PM
From: foundation	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196608

"....the roll-out timetable promised by European operators would be delayed by two years...until late 2004 or early 2005...." ---------- Taken in tandem with gprs's dubious performance prospects and imminent health concerns, how does the prospect of delayed 3gsm color Q's fortunes? How will China perceive this news? How will a protracted delay for 3gsm technology effect China's choice for its 3G standard - especially in tandem with td-scdma proving even farther behind in its development than umts/wcdma? If China seeks an advantage on the wireless world stage, might the prospect of speeding well ahead of Europe with a fully developed technology (that includes China's las-cdma IP) be appealing? China would have the opportunity to exploit the wireless leadership vacuum generated by protracted 3gsm delays - and use cdma2000 and its time advantage as weapons - to assert global influence. If China were to favor 1x for 2.5g, 2.5g overlays, and 1x evdv for 3g, how would its decision influence other operators? Would China be motivated by royalties, and China manufacturers motivated by associated IP and technologic advantages, to promote cdma2000 globally? Conversely, what would compel China to champion 3gsm - to endure gprs's inherent technologic inferiority and problematic growing pains - in order to place its own technologic development on hold for years - in order to adopt 3gsm and endure another generation of subservience to to a foreign standard and foreign vendors? Without China, 3gsm's 80/20 vision fades. How would Korea operators respond to protracted 3gsm delays? Would they rethink plans for 3G spectrum? What of JPhone in Japan - how would protracted delays effect their plans for wcdma? And are NTT wcdma delays soon to be announced? How would China influence decisions? What of Cingular? Is the prospect of following in T's path becoming more or less attractive? Cingular has yet to make a formal declaration... How would protracted 3gsm delays effect Nextel's final decision? Would protracted delays make 3gsm more or less attractive in Latin America? In Australia? How long will European operators delay? Relations between operators and vendors appear to grow more strained by the day... And who can blame the operators? ben