Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : WR's Momentum Trades -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trumptown who wrote (9418)	2/23/2001 9:01:29 AM
From: ChrisJP	Respond to of 11130

Hi Stingray, everyone is looking for Oct 1987 or Oct 1998 style capitulation. Wake me up in mid-May. Zzzzzzzzzzz. lol We had a nice "V" rebound at 1180 yesterday, but it was short lived ... for good reason. I'm happy to report that the DOW, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are now at levels that that made buy and hold investing for the last 2 years a losing proposition. Meanwhile, money markets and bond funds have been yielding 6% or greater. IMO, it'll be something like 2 years before the buy and hold stock money catches up to the money market fund money. I don't think the investing public is too keen on the idea that their life savings will basically have done nothing for 4 years. Thats a long time. Especially when they were used to 20%/year. I think I own something like $60K in stocks and/or stock mutual funds. $20K of that is in SCMR and CLRN, which I just bought yesterday and will probably get stopped out of, lol. Another $20K is in dog stocks I just don't feel like selling cuz I rode them into the ground (C'mon MLOG !!!!). Rats. The rest is actually making money the old fashioned way ..... 5%/year. Which kind of sucks but at least I'm sleeping at night. I really don't think we are gonna get a 1987 or 1998 market turn around. We are going to bounce between whatever low we hit and the down trending 50 dMA for a while .... I dunno -- till August or Sept ? Of course the bounces will become smaller and smaller -- descending triangle style. Eventually, the 50 dMA and 200 dMA will converge and we will head up again ... very slowly for a while. From a buy and hold strategy perspective, the time to average in is when the markets spike above the 50 dMA (like they did in late Jan), then pull back but shows support on the 50 dMA. A spike above the 200 dMA would be a good sign too. I'm also looking for volume to drop off -- a sign that no one wants to buy and no one wants to short either. I hope there are some day traders reading this and are at least considering the implications of what I think may occur -- if it does occur. Just my thoughts. Good luck today -- hmmmmmm, maybe we will get to 1800 - 1900 sooner than I thought ! Chris