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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (1185)	2/23/2001 2:02:01 AM
From: pressboxjr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24758

JRI......forgive me if I butt in, but here is my stupid and absolutely ridiculous opinion: Dow bottom ----- 9700-9800 Nas bottom ----- 1800-1900 I'm not normally a bearish type person, but hey, gotta face facts here. Good luck P.S. Is it just me, or does anybody else get the feeling that something horrible is about to happen? And I'm not talking about the markets. By the way, my intuitions may be off by about 2-3 months, so take it as you will.

To: JRI who wrote (1185)	2/23/2001 2:05:33 AM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 24758

(1) What are your targets for the final flush-out for Dow and Naz? Timeframe? I have no idea. Your guess is better than mine. I can't make money that way. You'll find you just end up here or there and there is no calculated connected path between the two. Thus, the Hindu jnani thinks the that the world is nothing but a dream, and we can't remember yesterday. (2) (Forgive if this sounds naive, but) It isn't. the Fed can pump all they want, but if that money is going into ... elsewhere Quite correct. You are leading to what as known as "liquidity trap", and it's the phenomenon most feared by FED control freaks. After WW2 when the Keynesians gradually came to dominate economic thinking, such a trap was considered possible, but avoidable. In fact, it was the raison d'etre for liberal monetary policy. It was felt that any level of chaos was better than entering back into the Greeeaaat Depression, so instead we got an extended period of chronic structural inflation that could only be stopped by 21% interest rates and the distributed depression of the '70s,'80s, and early '90s. During the preceding period a trap was considered avoidable because money pumping could always stimulate a demand dominated economy(read, highly taxed with incentives to borrow). Such a technique won't work well in a supply dominated economy(read, highly taxed with disincentives to spend). This is Japan's problem. They're stuck in a liquidity trap. It's amazing but they are there because they fear illiquidity! The answer for Japan is to bust the fear. Either Japan's leaders will elect to do this or the markets will do it and violently. And, such a technique won't work in a demand dominated economy either because after a while more and more money causes interest rates to rise! Why? Ask AG. He'll tell you that it's due to "rational expectations". The players learn the game and when they see the fat man walking towards the market, the word is given to raise prices and make him pay. The money goes more and more into final prices rather than into output. How? You have money. You can use it to do more business or you use it in the casino where you don't have to undergo all that suffering it takes to make money the old fashioned way. What you do depends on how rich you are. The richer you are, the less prudence you have, and the more likely you'll end up in the casino. The FED's chief duty is to make people poor so they will quit the casino and be happy. You never want what is in your best interest.