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To: bill meehan who wrote (70692)	2/23/2001 4:59:10 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Bill congrats on your recent calls, they have been excellent. i agree Friday should be a good rally. However BKX is testing 200DMA if it doesnt hold it could get late early(as Yogi says). What's your view on the DOW? about Bonds? Are you looking for stagflation, deflation, or inflation? Its been very tough to buy bonds in this enviroment. The fed will lower, and lower because I think deflation is worse then inflation and the fed knows that. They will re-inflate to prevent all out collapse.

To: bill meehan who wrote (70692)	2/23/2001 7:32:57 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

that's about what i am looking for as well... now we should all be scared as we agree -vbg- as for easy al.. f*ck him.... i don't think he cuts again till after a crash. if he cuts too soon he risks seeing his cut get sold

To: bill meehan who wrote (70692)	2/23/2001 9:35:54 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Bill, your targets are too optimistic but I understand you can't be too radical in your position or they will call the men in white coats. Someone on this thread quoted Ned Davis who noted that prior to the early 1990s the Nasdaq never traded beyond PE of 50 in the 80s just simply returning to those levels would put us around Nas 800 ! ( TL & EV ) In addition, we will experience a significant contraction in earnings. I think during the last recession ( 90-91) S&P earnings contracted 30% . Whatever the figures we can expect a more severe contraction in earnings this time around for many reasons : sated consumer demand, lower quality of earnings due to accounting gimmicks and financial engineering, high debt levels, negative wealth effect, low to negative savings rate - a return to more normal savings rate alone would create a recession. In addition, we must remember that much of the credit excesses were not used for productive uses - consumption and financial engineering - M & A , share repurchases etc. Moreover, much of the productive investment will turn out to be malinvestment. Mike