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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ivan solotaroff who wrote (38628)	2/23/2001 5:36:39 PM
From: ivan solotaroff	Respond to of 79279

INTC Oops. That's not the strongest signal, but it is one. Disregard.

To: ivan solotaroff who wrote (38628)	2/24/2001 9:45:15 PM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79279

Ivan, Ok...you want hyper-bearish? If not...read no further. In a couple seminars I held about 2 years ago I sorta, kinda mentioned that the DJIA was over its IL. The prospect made me too nervous so I stopped mentioning it. The March 2000 drop hit the IL and used it as support. The Sept 2000 drop broke below it. Since 11/13/00 the index has been generally trending just about right on the IL and last week's little burp started things on the way toward what appears to be the move to the ACT. Since the ACT was established the index has behaved very much like almost all stocks do in relation to the IL. An initial test of the line sees it as resistance. The DJIA did that from Feb thru May '96. The next step is a break over the line followed by a pullback that doesn't get back to the ACT. The DJIA did this part twice. For the DJIA the initial pop over the IL came in Nov '96 and the pullback under the line was the March '97 correction which did not go back to the ACT. This is followed by a stronger break back over the IL in April '97. There were a couple bounces off the IL in the Oct '97 to Jan '98 period. The July to Oct '98 correction was the 2nd time the index fell hard through the IL but still did not reach the ACT so back over the IL it went again. The Dow peaked in Jan 2000 and with the initial plummet from the top hit the IL hard and staggered back up some. The ACT is 11/23 to 12/9/94 and is moving up at a rate of 2.447272727273 points per day. If you figure there are 250 trading days per year that puts the ACT just over 7500 at this time. I'll go out on a limb here and assume that the timeframe from peak to ACT will be closer to 1/3 that of ACT to peak. That's about 1.7 yrs. With the peak 1.1 yrs ago that leaves another 7 months or so to reach the ACT which will be approaching 7900 at the time. If timeframe from peak to ACT is 1/2 then it'll be another 16 months or so...That would be really rough but the overall size of the drop would be less. IF (again with the big IF) the IL treats the DJIA like a stock, things will keep getting cheaper. But thinking that the IL might see the DJIA as just any other equity just makes me nervous. Doug R