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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nancy who wrote (1019)	2/23/2001 7:12:29 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

Nancy, To accurately determine probability for the FEDs to cut rates, there are 2 issues. The size of the divergence and statistics as to the effectiveness of this method. Lets assume that everytime there was a rate cut or rate increase there was a similar divergence in the futures, then the calculation that you posted could be very accurate, and WAYNE ANGEL may be underestimating it. What also needs to be calculated is the number of times there was a similar divergence which did not produce a rate cut/increase. If one examines it just on the last rate cuts, that could enhance the study - but not sure though. Im sure you are correct that the big boys were buying. one can say that the comment from WAYNE ANGEL did have merit with the BIG BOYs and did increase the probability of a rate cut, whether it comes before the FOMC is still more on the speculative side.