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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7725)	2/23/2001 8:03:22 PM
From: John Carragher	Respond to of 196875

Watching the nightly reports on cnbc and cnn they don't seem to feel qcom is shooting off to the stars. I hope this is a good prep for the qcom meeting. Management really needs to be able to communicate where they stand going forward to the financial community or it is going to be another wreak by the end of next week.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7725)	2/23/2001 8:03:31 PM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 196875

Mike: <<<Jacobs and all of us are constrained to operate in the real world, not the ideal world>>> Agreed. <<< Qualcomm's fundamentals are a lot further along than a year or two ago,>>> Yes. <<< but I don't see the lack of W-CDMA to be the panacea that I get the impression that a lot of people here think it is.>>> Just speaking for myself Mike, I do not see the "lack" of W-CDMA to be a panacea at all. The real world you refer to is that Qualcomm has zero revenue and earnings coming from Europe or the current GSM operators. So no place to go but up. And Qualcomm will obtain money through either the use of Qualcomm technology by GSM operators or through successful competition by those who do use Qualcomm technology over those who stick with GSM and do not. So there are two tracks here. Again, in the real world the choices have been assumed to be GPRS for data on a GSM base or 1x on a CDMA base. What Dr J is suggesting is that 1x/1xEV are also possible on the GSM base as a path toward WCDMA. Where there is practical competition such as in Asia and the Americas, GPRS doesn't stand much of a chance over time. But even so, there will be some successful GPRS networks, since this world is not a logical place. Outside of Europe will 1x, and then 1xEV be more attractive than GPRS for operators using GSM? (1x/1xEV are a foregone conclusion for CDMA One operators) That IMO was what Dr J was opening up as a possibility. None of this really has anything to do with the long run merits or success of WCDMA or whatever CDMA version will compete with it in the long run. In current spectrum, the competitors are GPRS and 1x/1xEV. IMO Dr J was saying that there is a possible route to WCDMA which substitutes for or can be used in parallel with GPRS for GSM land. The end result will be WCDMA or CDMA 2000 in any event. It is the path over the next 2 to 3 years which Qualcomm is making a bid for. Time will tell. Best as always. Chaz (aka Cha2)

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (7725)	2/23/2001 8:33:07 PM
From: voop	Respond to of 196875

I agree that Europe wouldn't be paying attention to Jacobs if W-CDMA was operable. Instead, they'd be sending Qualcomm directly or indirectly royalty payments for it. That, combined with an opportunity regardless of how remote it is to increase operators' efficiency (lower their costs), would be the ideal situation in my mind Mike, if there were a working WCDMA now, things are ecstatically good from a royalty standpoint but Qualcomm would presumptively have more ASIC competition and would have to win designs from European lemmings for a share of ASIC. They have fallowed the Hagfish of the cliff so far and would continue to do s IMO if WCDMA was here and working. There would be precious little biz in ASICS for Q IF there were other alternatives. Now if WCDMA is slow to arrive, we now have a chance to change the migration path of those lemmings because the monthly mortgage keeps kicking in. This gives Qualcomm an opportunity to sell ASICS in a market that they command and would change forever the migration path of millions to chips that they make. I am one of those crazies that says if WCDMA is adopted we win, if CDMA2000 wins, the mind boggles. If there is financial and technological paralysis in Europe, they lose and we win a little slower. Voop (one response, I hope this time)