Lynnette Luna on adoption tates of !X and W-CDMA.
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battle of the STANDARDS by Lynnette Luna
Telephony, Feb 19, 2001
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THE WORLD'S DOMINANT 3G STANDARDS HAVE THEIR SHARE OF
ADVANTAGES AND DRAWBACKS When it comes to the issue of third
generation standards, it has been a long and hard-fought battle for the
wireless industry. Since the early 1990s, the International
Telecommunication Union has envisioned one global standard for 3G
wireless services. That vision was later shattered when regional standards
bodies submitted as many as 16 different proposals for the IMT-2000
standard.
By 1998, the ITU was faced with 13 different 3G radio interface standards
based on CDMA. To make matters worse, Ericsson and Qualcomm were
embroiled in a highly publicized patent squabble that threatened to halt the
ITU standardization process.
Qualcomm and the Interim Standard 95 (IS-95) CDMA community wanted
one harmonized CDMA standard based on their chosen technology,
cdma2000, because it provided backward compatibility. Ericsson and the
GSM camp wanted their own technology, W-CDMA, which is incompatible
with today's IS-95 systems.
The ultimate compromise came in the form of a family of standards. It
took an ad hoc group of operators called the Operators Harmonization
Group to negotiate and compromise, scaling the 13 different proposals into
a single CDMA standard that encompassed three optional modes:
W-CDMA, cdma2000 and time division duplex, an optional component of
W-CDMA. (Table 1)
Today, however, the idea of this umbrella of CDMA standards has faded as
a forefront issue in the industry, while manufacturers pick up their political
torches and continue pushing for the technology they advocated in the first
place. The specifications for interoperability are finished, but no operator
has asked yet for the technology.
"It's finished, and now it's up to market forces," says Vino Vinodrai, group
secretary of the OHG and director of industry relations and research with
Bell Mobility in Canada. "It depends on each company deciding what they
want to do and how they want to evolve."
"Harmonization is a beautiful idea, but I think there still is a bit of animosity
between companies in terms of where they stand with CDMA," says Larry
Swasey, senior vice president of the communications research practice
with Allied Business Intelligence.
So the two technologies, W-CDMA and cdma2000, remain pitted against
each other.
W-CDMA is gaining most of the industry's attention, threatening to sweep
the world's footprint with its emphasis on global roaming and promises of
economies of scale. The technology also has backing from global carriers
such as Vodafone, the world's largest operator today, notes Matthew
Hoffman, equipment analyst with WitSoundView. "It's looking like the
market is fast becoming a W-CDMA world," he says.
Timing and cost of the technology remain drawbacks, however. Many
analysts are beginning to believe W-CDMA won't be a story until 2003 as
operators kick the tires on their new systems and wait for volumes of
handsets. The cost of licenses and new equipment that is incompatible with
existing GSM systems threatens to erode many carriers' bottom lines as
they build a system for a market that doesn't promise full returns on their
investments in the data market.
What cdma2000 lacks in global acceptance and roaming, it gains in timing
and cost. CDMA operators have the easiest migration path to high-speed
data services of any other technology operator since upgrades primarily
are performed in the software. Operators moving to cdma2000 1XRTT
have an incentive to migrate to these systems without banking on
widespread demand for data services. The new technology offers extra
capacity and packet-data services on backward compatible handsets.
Operators in Korea already have deployed 1X in their existing systems,
while North American operators have plans to migrate to the technology
before the end of the year.
"For the vast majority of sites, we'll upgrade using channel cards," says
Oliver Valente, chief technology officer with Sprint PCS. "We feel we're in a
good position here, because for W-CDMA, it's a very spectrum-intensive
and cost-intensive proposal."
The W-CDMA story: here and abroad Vendors Ericsson and Nokia
drummed up tremendous support in Europe for the W-CDMA standard
during the last decade. As such, all of Europe's operators plan to deploy
the technology in the coming years in new spectrum they win from
European governments. (Table 2)
In Asia, the W-CDMA community won a large public relations coup when
South Korea's mobile operators began heavily advocating W-CDMA. While
Korea's operators will migrate their existing CDMA systems toward 1X
technology, they want to launch W-CDMA in new spectrum the government
licensed. These operators say they don't want to become an island with
cdma2000, as they have witnessed key Asian operators - primarily
Japanese carriers - dedicate their systems to W-CDMA.
The Korean government, at the urging of Korea's CDMA manufacturers, is
stipulating that at least one of the three operators it licenses for 3G
services uses cdma2000, and it is even willing to give financial incentives
to that cdma2000 operator.
The government already has awarded the country's two largest carriers -
Korea Telecom and SK Telecom - with W-CDMA licenses. It plans to award
the cdma2000 license at the end of this month. LG Group, Korea's
third-largest conglomerate, failed to obtain a W-CDMA license and now
faces a dilemma as to whether the company should continue its
telecommunications business.
Meanwhile, W-CDMA nearly swept Japan last year. KDDI Group, which
operates a CDMA system today, was considering a flip to W-CDMA in new
spectrum the government auctioned last September. In the end, KDDI
decided to deploy a cdma2000 system, the result of U.S. government
pressure on Japan seeking assurance that applicants for 3G licenses would
not be disadvantaged if they chose a technology other than W-CDMA.
Qualcomm also threatened to bid for a 3G license if no operators applied to
deploy cdma2000 technology. NTT DoCoMo and J-Phone received 3G
licenses and will deploy W-CDMA systems.
DoCoMo, Japan's largest operator and an early pioneer of W-CDMA, has
embarked on an aggressive strategy to expand globally by investing in
operators with the expectation that they will build W-CDMA networks. The
carrier has taken stakes in Europe, Asia and North America, with a recent
$9.8 billion investment in AT&T Wireless. The company also has held talks
with Korea's SK Telecom.
One key piece of the world standard puzzle will be China, touted as the
world's largest market for wireless services. China's biggest operator,
China Mobile, is a GSM operator with plans to migrate to W-CDMA. The
second operator, China Unicom, has flip-flopped several times on a
decision to deploy CDMA alongside its GSM network.
In the U.S., TDMA operator AT&T Wireless announced plans to deploy GSM
services with a migration path to W-CDMA for 3G. Its alliance and affiliate
partners, including Canada's Rogers Cantel and TeleCorp PCS, are
following suit. But although AT&T Wireless says it still has plans to migrate
to EDGE, industry dynamics are hinting that EDGE will fail.
For example, analysts debate how many vendors are dedicated to making
EDGE products. Carriers in Europe have not announced intentions to
deploy the technology, eroding the economies of scale that TDMA
operators have sought by aligning themselves with the GSM community.
Other TDMA operators such as Cingular are likely to follow AT&T Wireless'
move, say analysts.
"It places AT&T Wireless in the international arena," says Bob Egan, vice
president of mobile and wireless services with Gartner. "International
solutions are key, and anyone who doesn't have that gets obliterated."
Painful transitions Making the move to W-CDMA won't be an easy
transition, warn engineers. CDMA technology is inherently complicated,
and W-CDMA uses elements that differ from today's CDMA systems, such
as asynchronous features. Today's CDMA has had 10 years to mature.
Engineers then had their own questions about whether this technology,
originally used for military purposes, would ever work in a terrestrial
wireless system.
"You have a whole different delta scheme," says Rob Van Brunt, director of
new business development with test equipment company Spirent
Communications. "All the rollout issues are going to be new. W-CDMA has
a lot of challenges."
Handsets are another issue. Indications are commercial quantities of
W-CDMA handsets won't be ready by the time the network equipment is
rolled out. The difficulty is compounded when the W-CDMA standard,
known as Release 99, continues to be a moving target with the number of
standard updates (see sidebar on page 70).
"There is so much standards work, and no one wants to put that many
products out there until the standards are complete and interoperability
issues are solved," says Van Brunt.
The current generation of CDMA was plagued with many handset shortages
when carriers initially rolled out their networks in the early 1990s. Many
handset makers attempted to make their own chipsets and were
overwhelmed with the complexity. Nokia's struggles with making its own
chipsets for IS-95 systems were documented in 2000, and companies like
Motorola are now relying more on Qualcomm for their chipset needs.
Vendors say these problems won't be any different for W-CDMA. However,
Qualcomm, which is planning to spin off its chipset business, has the most
experience with CDMA-based chipsets, and many vendors are likely to
purchase chipsets from the company while developing their own versions,
according to Van Brunt.
Luis Pineda, vice president of product management with Qualcomm's
CDMA Technologies Marketing, says Qualcomm will begin shipping a
single-mode W-CDMA chipset in the third quarter, based on Release 99.
However, it's unclear if many operators will build their networks according
to Release 99, or prefer to wait for more changes in the standard. Nortel
says it will begin interoperability testing in March with Panasonic, said to be
the furthest along with W-CDMA handset development.
First generation handsets are likely to be single-mode W-CDMA handsets
with no capability to leverage existing GSM networks. Carriers must
aggressively build out large swaths of W-CDMA coverage to make up for
the shortfall, an expensive proposition. Qualcomm is spinning off its chipset
division into a separate entity in order to negotiate GSM patents to build a
W-CDMA/GSM chipset. "We're aggressively pursuing this," says Pineda.
The cdma2000 story The cdma2000 camp is beginning to see some new
converts as well, primarily in the United States and Latin America where
spectrum is scarce.
BellSouth International is making the decision to overlay 1X technology
over its existing TDMA networks in Latin America. And nationwide U.S.
operator Nextel, which uses GSM derivative iDEN technology, plans to
deploy 1X technology, say sources close to the company. Vendors say that
several other TDMA operators are taking a close look at the technology as
well, even though AT&T Wireless and, likely, Cingular will migrate their
networks to GSM and eventually W-CDMA.
The operators looking at 1X are reviewing the economics of moving toward
a data market that is unproven at this point, say industry observers. 1X
technology can add voice capacity and high data speeds within today's
spectrum constraints.
"There's a concern for spectrum, and 1X is more spectrally efficient," says
Neal Campbell, director of CDMA product operations for Motorola. "There is
a lot of discussion going on. People are considering CDMA.... Operators are
doing cost/benefit analysis and realizing they still have to make significant
upgrades to go to EDGE or UMTS."
Mark Roberts, managing director of wireless equipment for First Union
Securities' telecommunications infrastructure practice, believes a
worldwide migration toward W-CDMA is still too early to call.
"I don't think anyone has made any definitive plans," he says. "There is a
lot of posturing from equipment vendors pushing carriers to W-CDMA....
Our assumption is that if it's new spectrum being auctioned for 3G, then
everyone around the world is going to pick W-CDMA. If 3G is in the
existing band, I think most will pick 1X."
Most vendors concur that cdma2000 won't be widely adopted in new
spectrum, although a cdma2000 license winner in Korea and KDDI Group
will deploy these new systems in the spectrum their governments grant
them.
Dave Berndt, director of mobile/wireless technologies with The Yankee
Group, predicts some non-traditional CDMA operators will take a serious
look at 1X once the technology rolls out this year. "If 1X can deliver, I
believe there will be some changes by mid next year, because it's going to
beat everyone else to 3G," he says. "We don't predict widespread
[W-CDMA] rollouts until 2003."
"There's a lot of hype surrounding W-CDMA, but there's a lot of momentum
on 1X," says Perry LaForge, executive director of CDMA Development
Group.
LaForge expects KDDI Group to issue a strong challenge against DoCoMo's
popular i-mode service, which only runs at 9.2 kb/s, by launching 1X
technology this year. DoCoMo plans to launch W-CDMA technology this
spring but only with limited coverage, few handsets and
slower-than-expected data speeds.
"I honestly believe we are in a unique position," says LaForge. "In the next
couple of years we're going to be doing everything we said we would be
doing."
By late this year, most CDMA operators plan to migrate to 1X, which will
give them data enhancements of up to 144 kb/s with primarily a software
upgrade. Shortly after, in early 2002, carriers are likely to add what is
known as 1X EV (Evolution), which will allow them to dedicate a 1.25 MHz
channel to data services that will offer speeds of up to 2.4 Mb/s.
Enhancements a year later will increase that capability to 5 Mb/s with
real-time voice and data services. Further, 1X handsets will be
backward-compatible with the current generation of CDMA.
The uphill battle The challenge for cdma2000 proponents will be to combat
the W-CDMA industry's assertion that the technology is the world's
standard for the next generation. The cdma2000 community has already
been hit with a few public relations blows in Asia, where Taiwan operator
Chungwa Telecom abandoned plans for a nationwide rollout of 1X service
because it had to give spectrum back to the government. M1 in Singapore
also shut down its CDMA network in order to give up spectrum, while
Telecom New Zealand has postponed plans to deploy a CDMA network.
Qualcomm will play a critical role in pushing for integrated handsets that
can handle cdma2000 and W-CDMA standards, because it will become a
primary supplier of CDMA-based 3G chipsets.
"We are in the process of developing multimode products," says
Qualcomm's Pineda. "We're in discussion with some operators. We see
their timelines, and we think we could have a realistic product with
multimode capability sooner than most believe."
The Global Roaming Forum, initiated by the GSM Association, is working
with both CDMA and TDMA technology camps to find solutions for global
roaming across all technologies. And the CDMA community is beginning to
embrace the idea of subscriber identity modules that store subscriber
information and are used in GSM phones today.
"We have implemented in 1X chips support for a SIM card that are just like
GSM cards," says Pineda. "This could help the issue of roaming with
different networks in the long term."
Meanwhile, the ITU is working on core network standards to enable global
roaming between various flavors of 3G networks and aims to have the
standards done by the end of 2002. But whether carriers want any of these
capabilities incorporated in their networks and services is another story.
It's becoming more and more unlikely that many GSM and TDMA operators
will deploy EDGE, enhanced data rates for GSM evolution.
TDMA operator AT&T Wireless has decided to deploy GSM and general
packet radio service (GPRS), rather than wait for EDGE, a third generation
technology solution for GSM and TDMA operators.
Waiting for EDGE meant AT&T Wireless would deploy high-speed wireless
data services later than the majority of its nationwide competitors - in
2003. Although the company says it will deploy EDGE as an interim step
before it launches W-CDMA, many analysts question how many vendors
are dedicated to the technology since carriers in Europe have not
announced intentions to deploy EDGE.
Another large TDMA operator, Cingular Wireless, is mulling a change to
GSM as well, although it has acknowledged that its European carrier
affiliates are still considering EDGE. The technology was originally
envisioned as a spectrally efficient option for European carriers that don't
win spectrum at auction, but so far all but one of Europe's incumbents have
won licenses. Telia, the incumbent in Sweden that failed to secure a 3G
license, formed an alliance with 3G license winner NetCom to access a
W-CDMA system.
The Universal Wireless Communications Consortium, the organization that
represents TDMA operators and vendors, recently announced support for
W-CDMA as another technology path for TDMA operators.
"EDGE continues to gain momentum as a spectrally efficient and
cost-effective solution for providing third generation services to the mass
market," says Sheila Mickool, CEO and President of UWCC.
Japan's NTT DoCoMo is expected to be the world's first operator to launch
a W-CDMA system in May. However, DoCoMo's W-CDMA technology is
different from the standard accepted by the International
Telecommunication Union, say vendors.
The standard, dubbed Japanese W-CDMA, or JW-CDMA, has certain
subtleties, including proprietary protocol stacks, and vendors must sign
non-disclosure agreements to access information.
Panasonic is expected to be DoCoMo's first handset supplier, yet vendors
say the company's chipsets for W-CDMA won't be available for testing until
October, putting into question whether DoCoMo will launch service on time.
Because the W-CDMA standard is a moving target, most vendors are
working on deploying Release 99 of the standard and adding in the
corrections, which standards bodies will complete in June.
Release 2000 was so complicated that standards bodies had to break up
the standard into two parts, Release 4 and Release 5.
Standards bodies will complete work on Release 4 by March, says Michael
Murphy, vice president of UMTS Solutions with Nortel Networks. But to build
to that specification takes an additional 12 months, he says. Work on
Release 5 should be completed by the end of 2001.
W-CDMA Release 99 has two branches. One controls voice traffic, while the
other supports data traffic. This means the core network is circuit-switched
with packet data running on top. Together, Release 4 and Release 5 will
create an all-IP core network.
"In a general case, vendors would do those two steps separately because
they do result in a lot of R&D, and there still are some unsolved problems
surrounding how an all IP network really works," says Murphy. "Release 4
and Release 5 allow vendors to deploy an all-IP network in steps." |
