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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (1030)	2/23/2001 9:39:20 PM
From: Nancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Don, it has been an open secret among bond traders in Chicago pit. if you notice it, the CNBC Chicago pit guy often mentioned such from timt to time about the Fed fund futures priced in % of rate cut etc etc. the prediction is not reliable until 2 weeks into fomc i guess because lots of econ data would have impact on it until most are known when getting close to fomc. there was prediction that 2/27's consumer confidence index would be bad enough for fed to do intra-meeting. very similar to the speculation back in jan when talks were first employment data (friday) would give data for fed to do intra-meeting - nobody expects it would happen on Wed the 3rd. however, the effect this time may not be as big as the one on 01/03. the first one induced a 18% jump on one single day then it quickly lost steam. the second one was so anticipated, market moved up from 1/10 to 1/24, for a total of 25% then paused. promptly sold off after the cut. now people have the experience of prev 2 cuts, what would you think how much it can move up given that the reality at earning front is getting uglier by the day ? can we get to the "abandon baby" gap ? 20 & 50 dma are 2391 & 2459 as of yesterday. gap at 2266. counting from today's low of 1935, a 15% move bring us to 2225, a 20% move would be 2322. 25% is 2418, 35ema is 2413. i would imagine the maximum move would be 2450. 30, 50 dma, 35 ema, converge in that area with 20 dma just under 2400. too much resistance. about the 7% or bigger decline high probability for retest - would this new low qualify for that ? i.e. we could retest after this relief rally ?