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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (5222)	2/24/2001 6:49:40 AM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 6445

CSCO buyout of AVCI plausible to compete against JNPR..............Cisco's Core-Router Share Slips (02/23/01, 9:24 p.m. ET) By Meg Walker, TechWeb News Figures from a market research group show that Cisco Systems Inc. lost 4 percent market share for its core router products in the fourth quarter of 2000 while Juniper Networks gained 4 percent. Though Cisco (stock: CSCO) still captured 65 percent or a majority of the fourth quarter market share, analysts say it is no surprise that Juniper, Sunnyvale, Calif., is gaining on the networking giant, based in San Jose, Calif., when it comes to high-speed WAN routers. "The marketplace knew it was coming," said Sam Wilson, an analyst for Merrill Lynch. "Juniper had the only OC 192 router on the market. It's a great story and Juniper has done a fantastic job." An OC 192 router sends data through networks at speeds of 10 Gbits/s. It is the fastest router on the market for the core part of the network. The Dell'Oro Group, a research and consulting group in Redwood City, Calif., released a report showing Cisco's share of the total market for core routers slipped from 69 percent in the third quarter of 2000 to 65 percent in the fourth quarter. The routers tracked are the company's GSR 12000 series sold to service providers. Meanwhile, Juniper's share of the market for its M160, M40 and M20 routers rose from 30 percent in the third quarter to 34 percent in the fourth quarter. The total market for the fourth quarter was valued at $836 million, according to Dell'Oro's report. The third player was Avici Systems, which saw sales of its Terabit Switch Router grow from a third quarter total of $4.4 million to $8.8 million in the fourth quarter 2000. The company held one percent market share in the fourth quarter. For all of 2000, the core router market was $2.4 billion, according to the Dell'Oro report, Cisco owned 71 percent of the market while Juniper Networks had 28 percent. But year over year, Cisco's ownership of the market has slipped also, according to the group. In the last quarter of 1999, the overall market for core routers was worth $270.2 million with Cisco owning 78 percent of the market and Juniper just over 17 percent. While some analysts don't think the fourth quarter figures signal a continuing slide for Cisco, they do think the company suffered because it was late to the market with a router that can jam data through a network at speeds up to 10 Gbits per second. In January of this year, Cisco came out with a 10 Gbit interface card that can slide into a router, making it capable of fueling an OC 192 pipe. But Juniper's routers have had the capability since last spring, a spokesman for the company said. "It shows that Juniper continues to make inroads into Cisco's core market and it speaks to the delays that Cisco has experienced," said David Passmore, research director with The Burton Group. As for why Cisco may have been late to market Passmore said. "It's just tought to develop" an OC 192 router. And Passmore said in this case Juniper (stock: JNPR) has the advantage of zeroing in on high-end routers for the core part of the network whereas Cisco makes about a dozen different types of routers for different parts of the network. "Jupiter is more focused," he said, "Cisco has a lot on their plate." He and other analysts expect that now that Cisco has the OC 192 router technology, there will not be any more dramatic tradeoffs in market share between Cisco and Juniper. "I'd expect Cisco to take its market share back, going forward; it's just a matter of what rate," said Tom Lauria of ING Barings. "Most carriers want to diversify their vendors and don't want to give all their business to one vendor." Said Michael Jung, an associate analyst for SG Cowen Securities: "I think the gains made by Juniper will start leveling off, because Cisco has the product and can serve pent up demand in existing customers." Martina Moscone, a public relations manager for Cisco, said the company has been disputing the market share figures with Dell'Oro because they are calculated on Juniper revenue for sales of equipment and related services. Cisco's revenue is based only on equipment sales, Moscone said. She said the company believes Cisco's fourth quarter market share is closer to 69 percent. She could not say whether their market share fell from the third quarter but she said there was some softness in buying because the company's customers were waiting for the OC 192 line card to come out. Karolin Di Cristina, a spokeswoman for Dell'Oro, said that the market share was based on figures provided by Juniper and Cisco, and Juniper includes service revenue along with equipment and Cisco doesn't. But she and analysts said the trend would be the same even if Cisco's service revenue was taken into account. "The trend is the same," Wilson said. "Juniper has been gaining market share from Cisco."

To: Jenna who wrote (5222)	2/24/2001 10:50:51 PM
From: Jenna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6445

FCEL.. a short play by Fund Manager George Paoletti. ( he operates a $55 million long/short hedge fund as interviewed in this week's barrons. I'm not sure if he knows FCEL's earnings are coming out and if that will fuel (no pun intended) or quell his short, but we are always on the looking for "Anticipatory Downswing" as well as upswing in our earnings plays, so we can play this according to the trend established next week.

To: Jenna who wrote (5222)	2/24/2001 10:56:33 PM
From: Jenna	Respond to of 6445

<<Message>> It has come to my attention that certain companies we have mentioned like ARXX have shorters that are knocking this stock solely because they have short position and they don't want them 'messed with'.. nor is there any disclosure.. What I would do is IGNORE anyone that might have an agenda in any post, especially those that never post except on a particular occasion. We sure won't be giving any groups any reason to knock companies because the Market Gems thread has a lot of exposure. We are NOT in love with any stock but nor will we denigrate or laud. Our response is always AFTER a gain and our commitment is to the charts. We have gotten some e-mails lately complaining of 4 people who have posted on this thread only to knock certain stocks and they are in a room and thread where they band together. All I can say is don't listen do your own Due Dilligence. If we are long a stock, we mention it and the position is so small as to be a 'remnant' of the original. No trader, not us or anyone has any IDEA how a stock will resolve itself and you can only EXPECT possibly a continuation of momentum, and as it was a very good earnings play we play it with expected 63% growth and a low peg. I have had this month a put and call in BRCD.. simply because we were looking to go for the gusto. and the call obviously went sour but the put soared. We are looking for the best possible trade but will not tolerate anyone using our thread to further their own short/ or long position. Understand the difference between OPINION and actual bashing a stock. It was our opinion that holding a few hundred shares of stock xxx. could be good for more gains in the next sessions. It was our OPINION that BEAS and BRCD would do badly and we expressed this for weeks already, and we based our short/puts on that opinion. It turned out the opinion was very sound. Ours is an opinion based on a combination of technical and fundamental criteria. Honest posters will say IMHO (in my own opinion).. We might short ARXX or any other on Monday, but we will not knock or laud any company because of a position we hold. We don't even hold positions for the most part in technology for more than a daytrade but occasionally we do. These posters have been banned from the site thanks to information and links I received from pms. Sometimes with all the work that has to be done, we can't really analyze a post and the agenda, that is why I do read all the pm's and if a poster sees something I miss, by all means pm me.