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Strategies & Market Trends : Quarter to Quarter Aggressive Growth Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bryan who wrote (2085)	2/23/2001 11:02:08 PM
From: stomper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6928

Definitely some provocative comparisons Bryan and there really isn't much to say except it holds water as well as any other theory...nice job. I don't think there is any reason why we couldn't have a very nice trading rally here...but what of warning season starting next couple weeks, and then earnings after that when multiple CEO's refused to even guide due to lack of visibility? I keep poking at Jack, asking about what it was like in prior recessions because I have no experience with such and as I mentioned in my post last night I just can't believe that we are going to eek our way out of this slowdown with what to me seems like a slap on the wrist. And I am not saying that cavalierly either. If we we're to do quick 100% gains on some of these stocks, are we not just reinflating PE's and the bubble. There are still monster triple digit PE's out there that are waaaaaay out of whack with their guidance for the next couple quarters. I don't know, it just seems too quick and easy to me...great for traders, sure...but really?, we inflated the bubble over many years and we bottom it out in a few months and get on with forward momentum? WTHDIK, i vascillate so much between camps it makes my head spin...I guess what I meant to say was, "good post". :-) -dave

To: Bryan who wrote (2085)	2/23/2001 11:22:29 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6928

Thinking out loud. This 10% potential worst case decline based on a bottom of 1900 doesn't sit well if the Nasdaq 1500 fear mongers are proven right. In 1998, I was more diverisifed so the the tech wreck was more of a peculiar event vs. a personal event. I dropped maybe 20% and gained it back plus more in a few months. In 2001 in only seven weeks, I was up 20% and probably down 20%. A 40% swing. I have to think this is psychologically similar to a more brutal 1987 collapse as I felt we were going to further lows. I am having trouble seeing the catalyst for the tech recovery and what first the sign will be for the recovery. In 1998, it was the second rate cut. It proved to be the the bottom, but no one knew it then. The Nikkei and other disasters were hyped on us then. The knockout punch to investor's confidence was people holding BRCD from $65 to $100 to $40 in seven weeks. I remember that 1987 feeling of capitulation and this last two weeks was a long drawn out version of 1987. The bottom for 1987 crash was so much capitualtion that weak sellers were gone. In the 1973-74 crash, people moved into oil stocks. Jack