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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MetalTrader who wrote (208)	2/24/2001 12:13:14 AM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 23153

Nor is the NG shock nearly as bad as the oil shock of '73. This is one of the main issues which will help determine whether or not we get a V (sharp rebound), U (long drawnout rebound), ~ (choppy flat market), or \ (big kahuna) chart pattern going forward. Few had forecasted the oil and NG price spikes we saw last year. Almost no one believes that we will continue to have higher prices (from here) for both commodities going forward this year. But what happens if we can't replenish NG stocks sufficiently before next winter? What happens if we get a nasty, cold, brutal, winter next year with storage levels similar to this year? We will start the stock building process at the lowest levels in recent history (projections from 500bcf to 750 bcf). This is one of the risks that I believe is weighing heavily on the market. Imagine what the inflationary trend will be if NG prices actually inch back up from the $5 level through the summer and we get to the start of 01/02 fall/winter heating season with even less in storage than we had this year? Oil and gas prices alone didn't cause our current situation but higher prices could make our overall economic problems harder to deal with going forward.

To: MetalTrader who wrote (208)	2/24/2001 7:13:23 AM
From: kollmhn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

You make an excellent point when suggesting that one of the engines of tech growth has been fueled to teleco capital spending. The last two years have seen Wall Street able to tap huge amounts of easy money for use by this sector. They borrowed it and spent it as fast as they could as the numerous companies vied for the building out their systems first. As a result they are all in debt up to their ears with no one to buy them or bail them out. Northpoint folding is just the first of more to come. Each one has an enormous ripple effect. Charts show pictures that mere numbers don't depict. The choice of picture can skew the message. However, if you all want to see what I see when I see what has occurred over the last few years and what is now being unwound, click on this one: siliconinvestor.com