To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (71406 ) 2/24/2001 10:17:30 AM From: BigBull Read Replies (2) | Respond to Patron, very good two posts, and thanx. Strangely, they seem to contain contradictory implications.If these attempts work then stagflation is a very real possibility, in fact, a probability. Big if though.for a while is that unprecedented and historic negative savings rate of the American consumer. This suggests to me that the American consumer is currently in a position where they have neither the ability or the desire to spend money even if available. I simply don't see any pent up demand for computers, cars, furniture, durables, etc. and so forth. After all, the country has been on a full tilt boogie spending spree for a full ten years. Along with the absence of pent up demand are all these incredible debt loads being carried by many consumers. This debt will have to be worked off and that will take some time. All this leads me to conclude that the prices of just about everything will have to decline substantially to induce demand. As you know, I am no longer and oil bull. I hold to the old fashioned idea that oil prices are negatively effected by recessions.
