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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (220)	2/24/2001 12:36:18 PM
From: Area51	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Here's a recent article that alleviates some of my concern that we will quickly become awash in oil. dismal.com With these numbers I feel comfortable holding select oil producers like VPI which are cheap on a number of measures (such as PE, total-capitualization/total reserves). I did let some of my ESNJ go yesterday to leg into ISSI (I'm glad I'm doing it now and not a year ago: siliconinvestor.com. Also picked up some TXCC and even a little ARBA [wrote the jan 02 20C on ARBA to lower my cost basis to 11.5; At 11.5 I am comfortable holding ARBA long term which is not to say it can't fall into the single digits in a NASDAQ 1500 type collapse)]. I saw there was an upgrade on ACTM yesterday by one of the major brokerages which sited the Seimens buyout of EFNT as potentially bullish as ACTM might pick up business from Siemans (EFNT has been a significant ACTM customer). Best Regards, Area51

To: jim_p who wrote (220)	2/24/2001 2:33:31 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

jim_p RE: <<With both oil price uncertainty and market uncertainty, I would stay clear of all oil and gas investments until we have a better picture.>> That's probably good advice but I wonder if we aren't overlooking the national security considerations in the probable Bush admin agenda. I suspect that osx stocks have a long way to run, although maybe not in a straight line. I have two basic reasons for this thinking. The first we have discussed many times and that is that even with lower oil prices there is still plenty of incentive to find and develop new sources of oil and gas. The second is one that we have only touched upon. It appears to me that this admin will consider the finding and development of non-opec sources of energy, whether fossil fuels or other sources, a national security priority. Part of that policy would seem to me to include a substantial increase in exploration and production encouraged by tax incentives or some type of incentive that will keep the osx companies busy. I think this is something that we should have been doing in the past and that we need in order to lessen the energy stranglehold of opec. I don't see the osx companies lacking for work over the next 2-3 years. In these times when profits might be hard to find elsewhere, I think the risk reward there is decent. I have about 30% cash, 30% osx and the rest in small cap tech, biotech and a little E&P. My cash and margin are waiting through the "not yet" era till the "now" era. I use the term "era" in deference to Kollmh's post that it may take YEARS for tech to recover. Do any brave souls have any thoughts on why it may or may not take years? Any scenarios for a short term sustained recovery vs a long term malaise? Ed

To: jim_p who wrote (220)	2/24/2001 3:19:56 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

With both oil price uncertainty and market uncertainty, I would stay clear of all oil and gas investments until we have a better picture. Yes, Jim, but couldn't we paraphrase that sentence to say... With both tech business uncertainty and market uncertainty, I would stay clear of all tech investments until we have a better picture. In the end, we make our best guess and push our money up to the line. I know I tend to fall into the thinking that whatever has had a great run will probably cycle down while whatever has had a horrible run will probably cycle up. Sometimes it works.....sometimes it doesn't. John