Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (254)	2/24/2001 11:57:19 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 23153

jim, [edited] >I smell a parallel between house prices in Houston between 1981 and 1986-88 when they hit bottom and west coast prices. Since we feel confident it will most likely happen, there must be a way to capitalize on this.< you can start by monitoring the unemployment rate. Today's Mercury News put it at less than 2% in Silicon Valley - which amazed me because it's still so low. Since you can't short housing, maybe there's a REIT that specializes. I don't expect much of a decline in real estate prices here myself. [<10%, but that's pure guess work] [edit: I would compare west coast unemployment with unemployment in the oil patch in the early 80s for starters to see if a parallel exists] Gottfried

To: jim_p who wrote (254)	2/25/2001 9:10:52 AM
From: Aggie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Hi jim_p and all, I remember the bust in 1986 Houtex also...Lots of "see-through" office buildings downtown around Milam and Louisiana. A geologist friend of mine reflected that, in 1981 it took him at least 45 minutes to an hour to commute from Katy, and come 1986, it only took 15. His $5MM house probably dropped below $2MM, but I never understood why a man in his 80's would care?. Yeah...well that's probably part of how the old goat got the $5mm house in the first place. To have that much money it becomes a matter of principle (no pun)and by the time you're 80, there's not a whole lot else you can do with yourself anyway. Wouldn't be surprised to see a similar real estate collapse hit the west coast, and then the east coast (which suffered a similar retracement in the early '90's). Regards to all, kicking myself for not jumping out in a bigger way last week. What's the take on the OSX, is it done running for now? Regards to all, Aggie

To: jim_p who wrote (254)	2/25/2001 10:49:18 AM
From: excardog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

jim How one profits from a housing down turn remains a large question. For an example in Seattle many of the homes purchased with Microsoft money were done with cashed in stock options etc. So lending may well not be an issue. Friends have told me in visiting up there that million dollar homes owned by young computer mavens will be vacant of any furniture for example other than the basics. Only example for SF is local friend moved up here from 4 years in the trenches and an ex co worker was attempting to buy a 3 million dollar "tear down" but would have paid cash after some stock option maneuvers. I agree with your thinking there should be a way to profit just can't seem to come across how. When values diminish most often it's the owner that takes it on the chin. Money heaven so to speak. Open to suggestions though.