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To: slacker711 who wrote (2150)2/24/2001 10:05:40 PM
From: Raymond Duray  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 46821
 
Intel says telecoms industry facing "bankruptcy" biz.yahoo.com

slacker,

The crux of the Hutchison lie is that they are desperate to IPO their POS and recoup their money from the dim bulb retail investor. I don't believe a word of what they say. It is impossible for me to imagine that starting from zero subscribers today, without any plant or equipment in place, without the handsets even designed, let alone available, that they are going to have 1.5MM subscribers in Italy in 34 months. Ain't gonna happen. Not this century. Look, the handsets that we do know about for 3G are clumsy, large, have huge power budgets and short battery life. Can you imagine any stylish Italian in his/her right mind going from a sleek Nokia 2G weighting in at 4.9 oz. and replacing it with a clunker coming in a fatboy 12 oz? Frankly, I think they'll take one look at the "new & improved" handset in the sales kiosk and go "I'll wait 'til they get it right". Li Ka Shing can tell us whatever he wants to about the Italian market. I'm more inclined to listen to Irwin Jacobs, who argued that the rollout of WCDMA is going to be delayed by 2 years. What happens to Hutchinson if Jacobs is even close to right?

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Here's the text of the headline article cited above:

Intel says telecoms industry facing "bankruptcy"
By Paul de Bendern

CANNES, France, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Intel Corp (NasdaqNM:INTC - news), the world's largest computer chip maker, on Friday said the telecoms industry was heading for financial woes because of its heavy spending on yet unproven next generation wireless technologies.

``We're facing a situation of where an industry is heading for bankruptcy...before even a 3G (third-generation mobile phone) call is made,'' Intel Vice-President and General Manager Hans Geyer told delegates at the GSM World Congress. [[Hysterical? I don't think so. RGD ]]

Intel is quickly becoming one of the key suppliers of semiconductors to the wireless telecom industry, selling processors and memory chips.

Mobile telecom operators including Vodafone (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: VOD.L), France Telecom , Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica last year sank over $100 billion into new radio spectrum licences, also known as 3G licences.

Geyer said they were likely to spend a similar amount to buy networks to run these new systems which are expected to deliver fast Internet services to mobile phones.

Geyer, attending the world's largest annual mobile phone trade show in Cannes, said the industry should work on finding and building services and applications that consumers would want and would buy.

Sales growth of mobile phones is levelling off to 20-25 percent annually from 50-60 percent levels in the last several years, which means operators can no longer grow their way out of unprofitable business plans.

Geyer said the telecoms industry should learn from the personal computer market and warned operators and wireless companies from trying to find a single so-called ``killer application,'' one which alone would justify the technology.

``The PC industry has not seen one 'killer application','' said Geyer, who made the comments during a panel discussion which included executives from Psion (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: PON.L), Siemens , Microsoft (NasdaqNM:MSFT - news), and Handspring (NasdaqNM:HAND - news). The discussion came after Japan's Sony Corp and Psion presented their visions of the wireless future.

``We shouldn't worry about whether Sony's (or other companies) vision is the right one,'' Geyer said. ``It doesn't matter which vision is the right one... users will decide what they want. I can't predict what they will want.''

``The focus should...be on the current technologies and what can be done with them,'' said Joe Sipher, vice-president of product marketing at handheld device maker Handspring.

``I'm worried that the focus is too much on future technologies and what they will be able to do,'' he said.



I remain firmly in the skeptics camp. What the telcos did to themselves last fall in the UMTS auctions was to shoot themselves in the foot, up to the hip.

JMVHO, Ray :)