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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (2153)	2/25/2001 10:22:43 AM
From: Scott Zion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

Hello Ray, "your model" was meant in the more general sense and not directed at you. I find it interesting to see the disparity between 3G models. Intel predicts bankruptcy while Nokia forecasts an ROI within four to seven years. Would 3G suppliers present scenarios that best represented their economic interests?:) Regarding Irwin Jacobs statement about a two-year delay…NTT Docomo and the Isle of Mann have small-targeted launches scheduled for this spring. With all the hype surrounding 3G, I expect both launches to be flooded with reporters looking for a story. There should be no lack of information as to the likely success or failure of these systems. I'll be fun to watch.

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (2153)	2/25/2001 2:36:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

instance, in Britain, there are 5 license holders for UMTS systems. AFAIK, there is only one incumbent, BT. So the question would be, how long will it take the other four SPs to recoup their investment, in view of the fact that they will necessarily have higher infrastucture and marketing expenses? I'm not sure if you mean incumbent as in ILEC or as in a current 2G operator. If you mean the latter, all four GSM operators in the UK have licenses for 3G. The fifth license winner was a shell company bidding for Hutchison. An interesting scenario proposed by pcstel over on the Qualcomm thread is that Nokia/Ericsson will announce GSM infrastructure operating at 2100MHz over the next couple of months. This currently wouldnt be allowed by the rules governing the IMT-2000 spectrum but it seems likely if W-CDMA were significantly delayed ('05) that regulators would change their minds. Another variable to throw into the mix.... Slacker