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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (70398)	2/25/2001 8:12:04 AM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 99985

I believe we're near a major low both in time and price level. I'll agree with the idea that an intermediate term counter trend rally is close at hand in both time and price, and could prove to be profitable from the long side. Too many other factors show however that the dominating trend is down, and will continue to be down long term, all rallies will be viewed with suspicion, and probably meet with stronger than usual resistance at major junctures technically. "The indexes are littered with failed rallies that bubbled with more optimism than last Friday's... Most big Tech's that seemed irresistible last month have rolled over to new lows." A weak consumer confidence report Tuesday could be a catalyst for a Fed cut that could extend any counter trend rally to set a higher low. But there is no rule that says that a "bear market" only lasts 9-11 months. The past bull market was unprecidented in length, it would stand to reason that the subsequent bear could be too... I believe the SPX is now the key to the markets direction; and the fact remains that the commercial traders in the S&P futures, who are rarely if never wrong, remain net short 96,000 contracts, while the small speculators continue to be long. There's still plenty of work to do<g> From IBD 2/26/01 pp. A22

To: Psycho-Social who wrote (70398)	2/25/2001 6:38:48 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

as well as my own proprietary sentiment indicators, I believe we're near a major low both in time and price level. >>>> ahem -g- Message 15318250 Nas McCllelan oscillator in oversold buy territory and making bullish divergent higher lows, versus lower lows in nasdaq since the april crash. a reversal above the zero line would be bullish. stockcharts.com 10 day moving average cboe put/call ratio in bullish territory of .73 stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyymy[pb20!b10!b5][vc60][iUb5] one of those moving average cross-overs could create a buy signal, switch in sentiment from bearish to bullish several days of negative tick readings and 35 vix indicate fear level is high a possible selling climax possible 5 wave count finished from the the 23rd naz top, with the three drives down on 1/26, 2/14, and friday. 207.61.23.99 i have a possbile wave count that would put the decline ending friday as the bear market leg down from july or sept as complete and we should have a countertrend rally back to 2900-3000 area before the final decline, another wave count would put that decline done in december and this is the final leg down in the bear market, and if thats the case this final wave down could extend farther, with this wave completed friday as he/she wave 3 of 3 -g- Daily, weekly, and monthly trends are bearish, all rallies should be looked upon as bear market rallies, until a series of higher highs and higher lows are created, fundamental picture remains week, with many nasdaq companies gapping down on earnings surprises and lowered forward guidance. a reversal in price action here, with strong market breadth, higher highs and higher lows could register a buy signal, stay nimble