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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (5244)	2/25/2001 8:48:34 AM
From: xamir	Respond to of 6445

Jenna, best advice that I heard in 6 years of trading. thanks Alex

To: Jenna who wrote (5244)	2/25/2001 1:45:39 PM
From: Dave Gore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6445

Jenna, great advice, imo. It is always best to keep emotions out and realize that if you are not informed and are not going short or long with confidence at the best time you research suggests, then you might get yourself in trouble. There is always a tendency for people to kick themselves for missing an opp and trying to make up for it by buying at inappropriate times using emotions. Regarding the Market, I think it is still very tricky. For instance, if we get a rally on the rumor of a cut, we could even get a sell-off on the actual cut, then another rally on that overreaction, etc, etc. To expect we will get a multi-day rise and stabilization of the NAZ is perhaps a dream at this point. The market looks about 6 months ahead (when it is thinking logically, which is seldom) and if earnings look good 6 months out then we may get something more sustained, rally-wise. The problem is that no one is convinced that growth will pick up significantly yet in the Fall. Right now, it looks to me that we have about a 60% chance that will happen, if the Feds do their job (which I think they will). But I am about 80% confident that by April to July the Market will be able to see ahead with much greater confidence, particularly because 2002 earnings will be able to beat 2001 earnings with ease, imo. For now, I agree with Brian Finnity and others who have said that the Market has about 10-15% downside risk and 50% upside....prety good odds on the long-side. I also think that this week (esp. Monday - Wednesday morn), people who are still holding short positions for more than a few minutes have got to be very careful. A rate cut could occur at any time.