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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2131)	2/25/2001 6:59:35 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

However, if the service providers do not price 3G data "right" (perhaps because they are eager to show some profits for their investors), 3G of whatever flavor may not thrive at all -- witness what mispricing did to Globalstar. In such a scenario, QCOM will continue to depend on 2G growth, which is waning, and its P/E ratio will reflect the diminished prospects. I think it is very risky to assume that QCOM will avoid collateral damage from the telecoms' collapse.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2131)	2/26/2001 12:27:46 AM
From: Muthusamy SELVARAJU	Respond to of 74559

By no means am I an expert, but I thought the recent Merrill Lynch write up on wireless vs portable futures was very illuminating. Essentially, the cost and bandwidth acces of portable devices is going to be so cost competitive, that 3G and HDR may not be necessary at all, esp if most high bandwidth content requires some sort of a pc or a pda type device. I tend to go along with this thinking, as I find it hard to rationalise what content can effectively go into a mobile phone device vs. what goes through a pc or a pda. The tradeoff to port high bandwidth content to a future 3G phone seems too much of a penalty for the user, as the mainstay application for mobile phones, imho, will continue to be voice related! I also believe that the world is going through a cold turkey treatment on technolgy, and this malaise will last globally for some 5 to 10 years. There are just so many other urgent priorities like globalisation worries, middle east, natural disasters, digital divide, the growing education divide, global warming, etc...the world fundamentally, is in a bit of mess, with or without more technology being stuffed down its throat, and it will be a long time before this gets sorted out. Therefore, precious little available investments are going to increasingly be focused toward addressing these issues, and not more de facto, prosperity in Silicon Valley, or elsewhere of similiar structure.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2131)	2/26/2001 5:02:58 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Maurice, Welcome to this den of ours. You may be the single person from down under the equator viewing this not yet so popular thread. Given that you are a bull that wandered inadvertently into our den, you should be prepared to take a bit of good natured and friendly ribbing. I probably spent more time reading your post than you did writing it, and was alarmed at my inability to think up a comeback. Your sound bites are so outrageously challenging and jolting that they temporarily fused all my synaptic gaps. Please stay with this thread for a while so that we do not have to pursue you to the QCOM thread, weapons in hand. Ok, my fellow comrades, start the BBQ, and I will prepare the sauce. Ribs are served today, imported from the upside down world of New Zealand. Maurice, I will address some of your observations, but in reverse order, as it better suits the upside down world you have described in the post. <<double your money back guarantee>> With bulls like you still around, dangling bits exposed, I fully expect to double my money the hard way. <<Alan Green$pan will cut interest rates all through 2001 as the stock markets rise>> Is that what is happening down where you are? Then a thought hit me and I took my Nasdaq, SP500, DJI charts, flipped them around, and immediately saw that, by golly, you are right! The markets are going up, if you look at the charts reflected in the mirror. <<Inflationary effects be zero [with oil dropping after being a huge highs]>> Is that a statement of fact or a wish? And do you have spare barrels of oil to sell cheap? If oil price does drop, it will be because the stock markets of the economies using oil dropped. Cause and effect relationships are tricky to gauge. <<I should add that Alan Green$pan is my idol. He was never targeting the stock markets, other than that they were a driver for Irrational Exuberance and a wild Wealth Effect.>> in conjunction with <<doomster mysticism>> We of this den have no idols. We observe, evaluate, and see that the maestro allowed the irrational exuberance to fester long after he openly stated his concerns. We also saw that the maestro, believing in technology, yet also believed in Y2K disasters that never were. No, the mystics are not the folks within this den. <<I expect to see a 16,000 Dow by February 2002.>> Excellent! Suggest you to take out a jumbo mortgage, deposit with broker as new equity, leverage up with margin debt, and use the whole pot of chips to sell QCOM puts, generating even more chips, and buy calls on all 30 Dow stocks soonest. We will be waiting to celebrate with you, BBQ fire and sauce readied. <<But of course the herd is free to panic and sell their shares at low prices to those who think the world will get better. The predators are always the top of the food chain. The herd in panic is not.>> 60+% constitute the herd, not the individuals in this den. We the lone hunters are not panic stricken, but wrecked with anticipation of a feast on ribs ripped from the bulls. We are not selling anything cheap to anyone. We sold expensive, very expensive, and are waiting for bulls like you to panic, and panic you will. Panic is only for folks who sold too late, not early. Agree with you that the predators are always on top of the food chain, by definition. <<The panic in QUALCOMM [like many of the other panics outside the dotcom world] is based on lack of understanding of what's actually happening.>> Why limit the thus reasonable panic to the dotcom world? It is not as if money lost there is not lost to the rest of the economy. We will soon reach full understanding of the full extent of the damage. QCOM is but one chair on the Titanic. <<Financial collapse of 2001? I don't see any reason for it. In fact, I see the contrary. The world is getting better in leaps and bounds every day. Not for everyone of course, but overall and on average and that's what makes the world tick.>> The world looked beautiful for most of 1929. It takes but one morning realization to see the mistake made the night before. What is it you need to see before you panic? Give us a hint of your portfolio allocation so that we can learn how it should be done and watch for signs of danger, as you would define them. When you do see those signs up close, where do you suppose the indices would be? Chugs, Jay P.S. Message 15410053

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2131)	2/26/2001 8:02:53 AM
From: Gofer	Respond to of 74559

Maurice, thank-you for your refreshingly optimistic response. I don't share your point-of-view, but then that's what makes a market. I hope your smart money stole some QCOM near $50 from the panicky herd on Friday. Re: cdma2000 versus w-cdma. I can't comment as I don't understand the arcane world of cdma air interfaces. I'll accept your assertion that cdma2000 is on schedule. Do you think there could be a royalty price war? Re: oil. OPEC seems to be more disciplined lately. I would predict a $25 average for the year(could be lower if we have a recession all year). A proper price for all and sundry. This price puts lots of O&G producers in the buy zone. Here in N.A. the natural gas squeeze indicates an investment bias toward gas. Re: 16,000 point Dow. Your profile indicates that you've already quit your day job, so I guess I can't warn you about that. Gooday from Canada, eh, the Gofer

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2131)	6/1/2007 4:47:32 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Mq, I'm just having a look upstream to review previous decisions and ideas to do a reality check since TJ is gloating. You were indeed wrong on the Dow 16,000 by Feb 2002 with half a decade having gone by and only now is the Dow starting to trend towards that figure. And, there is plenty of hot air puffing up the housing market with debt piled on debt since 2001 and interest rates squeezing people and deficits crunching them. TJ did indeed have it largely correct. While he was wrong in that there wasn't a financial reset, Rapture and generalized carnage, there was a long valley of lowered interest rates as you expected, declined share prices [especially in the biotelecosmictechdot.com realm] and then a vast housing debt build up. We are still not out of the woods. But it is a couple of years now since the housing top and there is no catastrophe. In NZ$ and gold terms, housing in the USA has taken a large pummeling. But Americans don't notice that. So they are disappointed with their minor US$ price drops, but not panicked at the loss compared with other measures. The USA financial system has got a lot of flexibility. Mqurice