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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5428)	2/25/2001 2:04:07 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Respond to of 57684

Gene i don't subscribe to the Japan theory, in fact i wish you didn't bring it up with my post... you know how people can take it and run with it. ; ) Gene look this time i think it's different. I'm staying out of the way for a while and watching. I want to see if a new longer term cycle wave is changing. I'm going by what my gut is telling me right now and i can certainly see it in many different charts of indices that are changing. Just think about this 100 basis points down on rates and the stock market is looking precarious. Look i'm staying out of the way, i think their's plenty of time Gene. You can chase it, but not me. The momentum indicators are detoriating more in the negative, it's very dangerous to be trading the ranges right now on the long side, the short side, however, will have the momentum. I think the risk is to high, to be holding most paper assets, especially the high PE stocks for this environment. I'm going to watch and see how this plays out: What sectors will do best, it'll be interesting. I want to clearly make another point, I'm not completely writing off everything in the stock market yet, so far it has been a stealthy Bear market.