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To: JohnG who wrote (94592)	2/25/2001 1:36:12 PM
From: John Chen	Respond to of 152472

JohnG,re:"3G License". Is there any similarity of '3G license fee' to 'Tokyo's real-estate price' (yes, today's price after the 1990 peak). I see write-offs writing on the wall.

To: JohnG who wrote (94592)	2/25/2001 7:45:54 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

John: A great analysis if the assumptions were correct. Take VOD as an example. They sold their equity position in Orange to pay the 4 billion pound license fee. They have no overhang. They sold their equity position in Mannesman to pay their fee in Germany. This nonsense about license fees is irrelevant. Let me make another point. VOD is not going to foot the bill for the costs of building the 3G networks in Europe. ERICY, NOK, NT, MOT, LU, etc... are going to provide the vendor financing for the new equipment. The exposure to telecom is pretty limited from here as far as the providers are concerned. The risk is that companies like NOK that promised 2.5G upgrades to GPRS cannot deliver handsets. Jacob's is flogging them with the 1xEV whip to position QCOM for entry into Europe. God knows how many companies are ready with 1xEV licenses at this point. How many GPRS licenses have been issued. It's about as quiet as the competition for GSM.