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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (6492)	2/25/2001 5:50:25 PM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 19633

Busy week for numbers coming: Bloomberg Survey Date Time Period Indicator BN Survey Prior 2/26 10:00 Jan. Home Resales 5M 4.87M 2/27 8:30 Jan. Durable Goods Orders -2.5% 2.1% 2/27 10:00 Feb. Confidence-Conf. Board 110.5 114.4 2/27 10:00 Jan. New Home Sales 925,000 975,000 2/28 8:30 4Qp GDP Price Deflator 2.1% 2.1% 2/28 8:30 4Qp Gross Domestic Product 1.0% 1.4% 2/28 10:00 Feb. Chicago Purchasers 41.4 40.2 3/1 8:30 2/24 Initial Jobless Claims 350K 348K 3/1 8:30 Jan. Personal Income 0.5% 0.4% 3/1 8:30 Jan. Personal Spending 0.6% 0.3% 3/1 10:00 Jan. Construction Spending 0.5% 0.6% 3/1 10:00 Feb. NAPM 42.0 41.2 3/1 10:00 Feb. NAPM-Prices 61.0 65.7 3/2 10:00 Feb. F Confidence- U. of MI 88.0 87.8 And AH testifies Wednesday and Friday. Paul

To: Tom Hua who wrote (6492)	2/25/2001 7:37:38 PM
From: GregS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19633

Tom, If the fed does cut, and if the NAZ does rally, the contrary side of me wonders if the ensuing sell-off should be bought? My reasoning is simple, the last two rates cuts sold off hard in the days following the cuts, I think many traders will by now have learned their lesson, and will go short after some kind of run-up. The could set up for another nice squeeze that may produce a more sustainable rally that goes much higher than most expected. Based on the VIX ratio, I think Friday's rebound was driven largely by short covering, I'm starting to think the right trade on any rate cut would be to sell longs into the announcement, hope for a sell-off, and buy that sell-off for a pretty nice squeeze. Just a thought at this point, I still kind of doubt we get the intra meeting cut in the first place, but I am long nonetheless. Your thoughts would be appreciated.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (6492)	2/25/2001 9:15:40 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Tom, the expectation of a rate cut next week is now partly built into the market and I think it will continue to rise until either the cut happens or the expectation is broken. But the problem is that the economy really is sick and I fear that the earnings problem will be wider, deeper, and longer than expected. Only so much bad news can be compensated by the good news of causing rate decreases. A lot of folks sold stocks for profit in 2000 and taxes will be due on April 15th, I look for a selloff just before then as folks raise cash to pay Uncle Sam.