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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IndexTrader who wrote (1343)	2/25/2001 5:59:31 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 12411

Hi Susan, Thanks for providing this seque: That brings me back to wheat. IF there is a 60 year commodity cycle, it seems to have bottomed in 1999. If so, this should bode well for the grains. 1. Winter wheat acreage planted for harvest this year is down 4.6% from last year: usda.mannlib.cornell.edu 2. Commitment of Traders indicates a substantial turn in the wheat market, with net commercial positions turning positive at 02/13/01: commitmentsoftraders.com FWIW, Ray :)

To: IndexTrader who wrote (1343)	2/26/2001 10:14:04 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12411

Hi Susan, I don't know if there's enough evidence to know exactly where we are in any K-Wave theory. But I agree with you that the tremendous gains in productivity brought on by the computer and the unfolding scientific revolution will continue for many years. I expect the developing nations will benefit wealthy countries look to create new markets. It's very possible that behemoths like Microsoft will eventually spend their own money to develop new markets in these smaller countries. If the IMF won't do it I suspect the multinationals will do it themselves. >>I once heard, anecdotally, that Greenspan considers it one of his missions in life to do away with the deflationary phase of the K-Wave. << No doubt Greenspan understands the K-Wave, and may well be ahead of everyone . <smile> >>That brings me back to wheat. IF there is a 60 year commodity cycle, it seems to have bottomed in 1999. If so, this should bode well for the grains. << Wheat and the grains are certainly putting in an extended period of contained prices. But it's hard to know if the market is about to explode again with inflationary prices. Today was an outside day with a remarkable buyer coming in during the last 3min of the day. Strong move at the close.