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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hobo who wrote (9715)	2/26/2001 1:20:32 AM
From: hobo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

follow up on that story about the Hang Seng... What bear market ? Monday, February 26, 2001 HSI heads for busy week US interest-rate rumblings, B-share changes, bank results set tone DAVID WILDER Next Story ------------------------------------------------------------ Ups and downs: the winners and losers in Asia last week. Key earnings results, the reopening of mainland markets and the possibility of good news from the United States are set to provide investors with a busy few days on the market. The Hang Seng Index finished last week down 2.23 per cent at 15,280.56 points. "We have a very exciting week ahead of us," Celestial Securities research head Herbert Lau Kwan-chung said. Although domestic news looks set to grip investor attention, interest-rate cut rumblings from the US could see a repeat of the January 3 rally in which the blue-chip index rose 4.42 per cent following an unexpected interest-rate cut. On Friday, investment bank Bear Stearns said that there was a 60 per cent chance of more interest-rate reductions this week - three weeks before the next Federal Reserve meeting to decide US interest-rate policy - as the US economy and markets showed few signs of heading anywhere but down. A report, signed by Bear Stearns' chief economist and former Federal Reserve governor Wayne Angell, said falling US markets could eat further into consumer confidence - one of the main drivers of the economy. Critical US economic data could again persuade Fed chairman Alan Greenspan to leap to the markets' defence. Among the key indicators to be released this week are consumer confidence figures for this month and existing and new home sales for last month. After trading closes today the full-year earnings for Hang Seng Bank and parent HSBC will be announced. Analysts said any surprises in the HSBC results, either way, could have quite an impact on the sector. "The market is expecting more than a 30 per cent increase in full-year profits," Phillip Securities research director Louis Wong Wai-kit said. "If there are any surprises, it may move other banking stocks. Otherwise, there won't be any exciting movements." Mr Lau said the market would be eyeing the results announcement closely. "The market has a lot of hopes riding on that," he said. "A lot of investors are expecting some positive surprises to come out of the results and lend support to the market." However, Mr Lau also said tomorrow could see volatility as the February index futures contracts expired. Wednesday marks the reopening of China's B-share markets, which officially allows mainlanders to invest. Analysts are widely expecting a jump in liquidity as investors seek to take advantage of price differentials between the H-share, A-share and B-share markets. Merrill Lynch head of China research Lan Xue saw no signs of the H-share rally abating. "We've been in a three-month bull run and we think the H-share index is very likely to hit 480-500 [points]," she said. Last week, the index soared 9.2 per cent to 427.57 points. Page 1 of 2 >> Next ____________________________________ but later in their day the Hang Seng is DOWN. HSI down 43pts at midday but property plays up REUTERS ------------------------------------------------------------ Updated at 1.34pm: Hong Kong stocks ended the morning session little changed on Monday but property shares climbed on hopes for an imminent US rate cut. The Hang Seng Index was down 0.29 per cent or 43.87 points at 15,236.69 at midday. Market turnover totalled $5.29 billion (US$678 million), down from $5.99 billion at midday on Friday. Gainers outpaced losers 216 to 176 with 353 stocks unchanged. Speculation that the US Federal Reserve could lower interest rates by the end of this week helped propel property shares higher but the uncertainty has also kept some investors on the sidelines. Andrew To, head of research at Tai Fook Securities said he is waiting for US consumer confidence data due out on Tuesday. The data should shed light on the state of the US economy and the extent of future rate cuts, he said. Hong Kong usually follows US interest rate moves because of its currency peg to the US dollar. markets.scmp.com

To: hobo who wrote (9715)	2/26/2001 5:08:58 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10876

Hot streak ended today, but not in a crash, just a bad day. Bought IBM 100 puts at the open but passed up another gain. gggg Will add 105's if they bounce this to 110. Got in and out of SEBL and CIEN puts - dead flat. Stayed in ANF puts (mistake) Bought DOW Index puts at the open (big mistake) Bought More DOW Index puts when it was up 125 or so. Oh well. The lot sizes were not big on anything. I did not have as much conviction as I have recently. The index puts were APR 106's so plenty of time to be right. Also bought KSS and COST puts today. Only slightly underwater on both, my entry on both could have been better but it was OK. KSS = Kohls. PE is 71 or so, which I think is absurd. I also believe the chart is topping. Same think on COST. What do you think? M