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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: portage who wrote (70470)	2/26/2001 6:30:57 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 99985

Your analysis of the SF housing market makes sense to me.

To: portage who wrote (70470)	2/26/2001 1:16:44 PM
From: Conan	Respond to of 99985

I don't see prices coming down much. Look at the SF peninsula on a map. It is surrounded on three sides by water. Most of the available land today is reserved for environmental purposes. The most powerful dynamo of the world economy is located just 30 miles south. As long as most of the new construction in this area is commercial office space and as long as people here aspire to own single family detached homes, my 61 year old POS three bedroom house will continue to appreciate in value. That's just how it works with immense demand and no new supply. Conan

To: portage who wrote (70470)	2/26/2001 7:17:26 PM
From: David R	Respond to of 99985

I remember the last real estate slide well. I had a friend in MView/Palo-Alot area who had a townhome that was $80K under for years. But, I am sure that the price tripled or better during the boom give the PA location. Personally, I was forced into buying a house when I got married in 1996. It turned out the be the best investment I have ever made. I can weather a almost 50% slide in the market before I lose my equity. The primary indicator is the price of renting vs. the price of owning. In early 1990's it was cheaper to rent than buy. I bought in 1996 because it was cheaper to buy than rent. Rents are starting to pull back as available units increases, and it is probably cheaper to rent than buy now (or getting there fast). IMO: the bay area market will probably see 10-15% slide and sales will be slow for a few years as income catches up with the prices, and then we will go through another boom-time runup. 20% or more slide will be a dangerous situation as increased foreclosures and bankruptcies will likely follow.