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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (71716)	2/26/2001 2:48:45 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Joan, I agree- I just think it's a short term blip. Maybe substitute hope for think. <g> From Barrons Commodity Corner this week; Industrial index slides One of the economically sensitive commodity indexes fell near a two-year low last week. The industrial materials JOC-ECRI Index hit a 20-month low and its growth rate slid to its weakest level in 23 months. The index has steadily declined for 11 months now, presaging the downturn in industrial production. Instead of the "V" shaped recovery that many economists are predicting, "the index is showing further weakness ahead," warns Anirvan Banerji, director of research at the Economic Cycle Research Center. There are two implications, according to Banerji. "The industrial economy around the world will get weaker from here," he predicts. And, he claims, inflation pressures, which are already benign, will decline further.

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (71716)	2/26/2001 4:18:53 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Another take on Inflation/DisInflation; 12:10 PM COMMODITY TALK: The Journal of Commerce index posted a new 18-month low on Friday, underscoring the notion that the recent jump in the PPI was a fluke and suggesting that pessimism about the future direction of the U.S. economy has grown. At 84.29, the JOC index, which is comprised of key industrial materials such as steel, copper, cotton, rubber, crude oil, and chemicals, fell through its previous low of 85.02 set a few days ago and is now well below its 2000 high of 92.1 set on September 20th. The index has fallen a sharp 3.0 points just over the past month. The index had moved sideways for about 3 months after hitting a low of 85.72 on November 3rd 2000, before falling sharply the recently. Given the strong historical correlation between the JOC index and the Producer Price Index, the JOC index is signaling disinflation in the months ahead, despite Friday's fluky report on January producer prices, owing to the current inventory correction and its impact on manufacturing output. It is important to note that the survey period for the January PPI ended around January 10th. This means that the recent plunge in commodity prices has not yet been captured. bondtalk.com