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Technology Stocks : Cabot Microelectronics -- CCMP -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (15)2/27/2001 3:29:20 PM
From: Brasco One  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35
 
nice healthy pullback today. this thing needs to correct a little.



To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (15)3/28/2001 2:35:54 PM
From: Glenn Petersen  Respond to of 35
 
Lashinsky's follow up:

thestreet.com

Cabot's Story Was Too Good to Be True, After All
By Adam Lashinsky
Silicon Valley Columnist
Originally posted at 10:02 AM ET 3/14/01 on RealMoney.com

There was a big red stain on a sea-of-green screen Tuesday, and it was the stock quote for Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP:Nasdaq - news), the semiconductor-related chemicals company. Cabot stock plummeted 22% to $46.88 after the company warned Monday night that, oops, contrary to prior guidance, the slowdown in the semiconductor industry would slow its growth rate after all. Fiscal second-quarter revenue will be 15% to 20% below the previous quarter, Cabot warned. The shares ended Tuesday down 44% from their $83.63 mark on Feb. 26, when a piece here pointed out that Cabot's amazingly expanding valuation seemed too good to be true. (By comparison, the Nasdaq Composite is down 11% in the same time.)

There's a lesson to be learned here: If a stock doesn't smell right, be very afraid. That's the case even if Wall Street -- ever mindful of the next potential investment banking deal -- remains bullish. In pre-bubble days, when Herb Greenberg pointed out these types of inconsistencies, it might take two or three years for a story to unwind. In today's environment, inexplicable valuations get resized in weeks. Conclusion: When a stock price doesn't pass the red-face test, get out of the way.

To review, Cabot Microelectronics is in the seemingly enviable position of supplying technology that's key to a major product shift. Its primary market is for chemical mechanical planarization slurries, a brew used to etch and flatten silicon wafers during chip production. Slurries are particularly necessary in a new technology that utilizes copper in the manufacturing process, and because the newest chipmaking equipment uses copper, Cabot is riding high.

As recently as Jan. 29, when it last reported quarterly earnings, Cabot predicted 50%-plus year-over-year sales and earnings growth. Some Wall Street firms, most of which had underwritten the April 2000 initial public offering of Cabot Microelectronics as a carved-out piece of conglomerate Cabot (CBT:NYSE - news), cheered and said the semiconductor-oriented chemical company's stock should soar. And soar it did, from $66.14 to as high as $100.13 on Feb. 15.

The short reason for Cabot's ascent is that it told investors it was more or less insulated from the economic and cyclical downturn affecting the chip industry. It also warned that economic conditions could hurt its customers, but Wall Street ignored that. One fund manager who specializes in chips told me that if chip production slowed, Cabot would suffer, no matter how crucial its technology is. Compare that to Cabot's own statement Monday:

During February and continuing into March we have seen a drop in wafer starts, which appears most pronounced at semiconductor foundry manufacturers. This is attributed to high chip-inventory levels and a slower inventory burn in our customers' end-market applications, which is compounded by the overall economic slowdown. Thus, we, like other companies in our industry, are experiencing a slowdown in customer orders.

Interestingly, Cabot said Monday it's sticking to its previous projections of 50% earnings growth and net margins of between 16% and 18% for the fiscal year that ends in September, despite having lowered revenue guidance for the quarter than ends in March from around $63 million to $55 million. It will pull that rabbit out of the hat of a second-half recovery in its end markets. Not surprisingly, Wall Street largely goes along with Cabot's assumptions, though once-burned analysts are becoming more cautious.

"Because of the higher growth for these high-end chips, we believe excess inventory will be absorbed much faster than for the overall industry," Merrill Lynch's John Roberts told his clients. He rates the stock an accumulate with a 12-month price target of $56.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kimberly Ritrievi estimates that Cabot's stock could fall to between $40 and $47.50. To get to that level, she's applying a multiple of 25 times her estimate of annualized earnings per share of 40 cents per quarter for several quarters at the low end and 25 times her calendar 2001 estimate of $1.90 a share at the high end. Still, she suggests that "long-term investors should take the opportunity [of Cabot's decline] to buy."

Finally, Robertson Stephens analyst Sue Billat reiterates her previous buy recommendation on Cabot, noting that at 31 times her estimated fiscal 2001 earnings of $1.90, Cabot is attractive. That stock must be really good-looking after Tuesday's plunge; it now trades for just 25 times Billat's estimate.

Oh, in case you're wondering, the underwriters of Cabot's IPO of nearly a year ago were Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Robertson Stephens.

For a slightly more sober view, consider the perspective of an analyst who so far is outside the underwriting tent. As noted, Cabot had a relatively low cash balance of $15 million at the end of December, and is considered a prime candidate for either a takeover or a future financing. UBS Warburg's Jeffrey Cianci notes in a missive to clients that "EPS [earnings per share] is showing high sensitivity to any bounce, and we still expect speculation about a deal could surface by year-end."

Cianci is alluding to the likelihood that a bigger chemical company would want to snap up Cabot. But according to Cabot's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, if it were to be acquired before Sept. 29, 2002 -- the second anniversary of its tax-free spinoff from papa Cabot -- Cabot Microelectronics could be liable for a tax liability to Cabot Corp. Hence, a deal is not right around the corner, unless an acquirer wanted to factor in Cabot's unpaid tax bill.

Cianci now projects earnings growth in the mid-30% range for two years running, and as such believes that Cabot is a strong buy, given that its forward price-to-earnings ratio lags behind its growth rate.

Perhaps he's right, though my sources say that as time goes by Cabot's technological lead will diminish as other companies figure out how to make its type of slurries. At least Cabot Microelectronics now trades in line with the rest of the semiconductor industry, about what you'd expect from a company that got 15% of its revenue last year from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news).



To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (15)3/28/2001 2:41:35 PM
From: Glenn Petersen  Respond to of 35
 
Interesting company. A home town perspective:

chicagotribune.com

STRANGE BREW SMOOTHS WAY FOR CABOT
SLURRY CRUCIAL FOR POLISHING COMPUTER CHIPS

By Jon Van
Tribune staff reporter
March 28, 2001

To most of us, making computer chips appears more like magic than technology--and that perception lingers even when the process is explained. Rather than intoning "abracadabra" over a steaming brew, the people at Aurora-based Cabot Microelectronics Corp. invoke knowledge based upon years of research. But the process still bears a spooky kinship to alchemy.

Cabot Microelectronics purifies water, mixes it with chemicals and abrasives, and then ships the slurry to integrated circuit fabricators such as Intel Corp., which rubs the slurry on silicon wafers in the process of becoming chips. The more advanced the chips, the more times they are rubbed with slurry.

There are, of course, good reasons to do this: Chipmakers want to ensure that each layer in a chip is absolutely flat and blemish-free. But the notion of polishing a processed semiconductor wafer with a chemical slurry--similar to a liquid sandpaper--was once considered impossible, or nearly so.

"The very idea of it once frightened a lot of people in microelectronics," said Angus Rockett, a professor of material science and engineering at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign. "`You're going to grind on the surface of my wafer? I don't think so.' A lot of people thought you couldn't do that without destroying the wafer."

But as chipmakers saw the need to pack transistors more densely into multilayered chips, they embraced a polishing technique called chemical mechanical planarization or CMP. About two decades ago, IBM Corp. pioneered the technology, working with a Boston-based chemical firm called Cabot Corp.

After years of working with IBM, Cabot created a separate unit to develop CMP technology. Last year, it spun off that unit as Cabot Microelectronics, which went public in April.

Today, Cabot Microelectronics makes about 10 different kinds of slurries, with more being developed. It employs about 400 and has manufacturing plants in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

The firm enjoys a close relationship with semiconductor fabricators, which share some aspects of their new products with Cabot so it can develop the appropriate slurries. Cabot Microelectronics maintains its own clean room chip fabrication facility for research and development on new slurries.

A wafer of silicon, which may be the size of a small pizza, is worth $30 unprocessed and is nearly as fragile as an eggshell. Once it's processed and covered with dozens or hundreds of integrated circuits, the wafer may be worth $30,000 to $100,000.

Polishing these wafers, especially in their later stages, becomes a delicate process that can make failure very dear, so fabricators put a high premium on reliability.

"It makes them nervous if we put a label on a container in the wrong spot," said Matthew Neville, Cabot Microelectronics chief executive, only partly in jest. "Once a fabricator gets his chip yield from a process up in the high 90 percentages, he doesn't want to change anything. He just wants that process to work exactly the same way every time."

The chipmaker's desire to avoid surprises, along with continuing development of new slurries to meet new needs, helps to protect Cabot Microelectronics' 80 percent share of the semiconductor slurry business, Neville said. Since slurry accounts for less than 1 percent of wafer processing costs, fabricators are unlikely to shop around and risk surprises.

There are solid economic reasons why chip fabricators put so much store in boosting their wafer production yield, said Gerold Neudeck, a professor of electrical engineering at Purdue University, who himself makes chips for research purposes.

"The processing costs are identical for everybody," Neudeck said. "If you're getting a 50 percent yield, and your competitor is getting 90 percent, yield is everything. He's going to make money, and you're not.

"The IBMs and Intels are always working to fine-tune things to raise their chip yield."

Because CMP has become a vital step in fabricating denser and more complex integrated circuits, Cabot Microelectronics has found a "sweet spot" in the chip industry with its slurries, said Sue Billat, an analyst with Robertson Stephens, who is based in Palo Alto, Calif.

"The shift from aluminum wiring on the circuit to copper increases the number of fabrication steps using CMP," Billat said. "Even in a declining semiconductor market, Cabot's revenues are growing."

First-quarter revenues, released in January, show nearly a 100 percent increase, to $68.6 million, while net income surged to $14.4 million.

Yet, like a number of tech stocks, Cabot's shares have been on a roller coaster.

Shares, priced at $22 when Cabot went public a year ago, surged as high as $100 in February before dropping into the $40 range after Cabot warned that the current downturn in semiconductors would slow its growth.

Enthusiastic investors were disappointed that even Cabot Microelectronics isn't immune to sector woes, Billat said.

"The chip industry is cyclical," she said. "You have to manage for that, and they are aware of that."

Cabot Microelectronics' parent spun it off as an independent firm because that was the only way to realize the value of the growth potential of CMP technology, said Neville. The firm chose to locate in the Chicago region because of excellent transportation and a desirable quality of life, he said.

"We looked at Silicon Valley," Neville said, "but it's too expensive and too crowded. Also, by locating in Aurora, we don't get the job-hopping you see in Silicon Valley, where a 20 percent turnover in the workforce is typical. Things are more stable here."

Shares of Cabot Microelectronics closed Tuesday at $50.09, up 5.3 percent, or $2.53, on the Nasdaq stock market.



To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (15)4/28/2001 12:58:47 PM
From: pass pass  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35
 
Jack, still follow CCMP? I have heard it many times from IBD but it always looked pricey until now. I think this is a good investment to ride the semiconductor recovery and copper revolution.