Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (29887)	2/26/2001 7:06:09 PM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42804

Sector, we know of management changes, firing of the sales force, and loss of a contract. There was also speculation on the Light Reading message board about Zaffire being unable to compete effectively with their product line, from someone who appeared to be knowledgeable. Granting that stuff like this could come from anybody and should be viewed very suspiciously, wouldn't you say that, collectively, that's enough to say they are "struggling"? Also, they DID announce the 1 large contract that was cancelled when the customer could not get funding. Are there any more significant contracts? If so, why not announce them at the conference call if Zaffire is really "kicking butt out there" as Noam said? There is surely no S1 filing in the next 90 days, so that can't be a reason. I only hope that the butt being kicked is not their own. MRVC has always been a company that had to perform to get recognition and market value. (Except from June 1999 to March 2000, when they got huge market value on momentum and industry hype.) They did perform on Luminent, albeit late, and thus with a far less value than had been hoped. But in fairness, even if they had come at 35 in August, LMNE might still sell for 7 today. And what happened to Red-C 16000, the subscriber management system that was, point for point, superior to the Redback Networks product line in every detail? They were in a customer field test in Florida in November 1999, over 14 months ago. And Redback continues to announce huge contracts and sales growth. Meanwhile, I noticed that Red-C 16000 hasn't even been mentioned in the last 2 conference calls, and nobody even asked about it. Not to mention accellerouter, which was supposed to have a huge market beefing up all those 100s of thousands of Cisco routers out there that were too slow. Anybody heard about that product recently? Meanwhile, Charlotte's is 7 months minimum delay on revenue shipments. Also, did you notice the article said they now may ship for revenue by "4th quarter" (which would be 1 year delay), in comparison with Noam's "June or July"? Anyone care to bet on the exact month of revenue shipments? And yes, I understand (vaguely) that the product is very advanced, unique, and complex. The fact remains that MRVC is still very much a company that has disappointed in their fundamentals of orders, sales, and profits, in many, many ways, for the last 18 months. Unfortunately, I was not smart enough to bail out when the stock went parabolic, ending 11 months ago in March 2000. That was my error, not theirs. And maybe it is the most important reason for the growing sour taste in my mouth recently. I still have nearly all of my net worth tied up in this company, simply because the potential is so great. And that is again, my fault and no one elses. But the story gets kind of old. But the fact remains, I think it is time to call a spade a spade. I can think of plenty of positive things to say about them, but you and Greg have already said them all. I know this will sound like I'm picking on you guys, but I would honestly like to know if, objectively, either of you could think of a single negative thing to post. Sorry, I didn't mean for this post to turn out this way. Just venting, I guess. Maybe in 12 more months we will see triple figures again. And maybe pigs will fly.