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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich1 who wrote (11733)	2/26/2001 8:58:38 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Rich: BKX was up 3% close near key 900 level on end of Turkey induced fears. Bellweather fincianals like C GE and MER up about 4% today. I can see this broad based rally continuing for some days leading closer up to FOMC. Everyone is hoping for 50 basis points reduction in rates by FED. Anything economic news which reduces 50 basis points move by March 20, will kill rally. I see 1350 in S&P very doable in next 2-3 weeks as long as FED hand is still forced to act agreesively. I don't plan to predict what is and when the bottom occurs but precondition for bottom will be when corporations can give earnings guidance that is not revised downwards the following week or month like TXN. I have seen no indication that capital good expendatures have been revised upwards one iota execpt for Intel. I had VP from well know home repair products company tell me today that a nationwide home improvement retailer with the blue colored Nascar car not orange colored one recently informed them recently that they were scaling back on meeting payment terms for products already received. It seems that not all the bad news is in on the economy but "there is nothing to fear but fear of bad earnings anymore". At some point it loses it shocking effect anymore. I fear more that increasingly more people with change their bias in their retirement plans from equities to money markets which will really put a damper on upside potential in equity prices. 401K money is what has driven this market for last 5-6 years. I see at least 6 more months of what we have had for last 2 months before people and funds feel more confortable about investing in market. john