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To: tripperd2 who wrote (412)	2/27/2001 12:31:34 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 3294

The reason my curiosity was piqued was a comment Raymond Duray "So, when I look at the projections from RHK, Dell'Oro, Gartner et al, what I see is that they have all plugged in growth curves that are unrealistic. The normal growth of any industry is an "S" curve and I believe that they have the tail of the "S" out too far into the future more often than not. " Mr. Duray is shooting from the hip. RHK has been researching the telecommunications space for years if not decades. If Mr. Duray can back up his claims with the same level of expertise, I'd be willing to give his comments more weight. Pat

To: tripperd2 who wrote (412)	2/27/2001 1:25:49 AM
From: BDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3294

Everybody wants to get into the forecast business. fiberopticsonline.com Intelligent optical network hardware market to grow 59% in 2001. Worldwide revenues for this new generation of intelligent optical network hardware hit $5.37 billion in 2000 and are expected to reach $8.52 billion in 2001. 2/21/2001 SAN JOSE, Calif -- Infonetics Research, recognized throughout the US and abroad as one of the industry's leading experts in identifying emerging markets, today introduced its newest quarterly worldwide market share and forecast service, "Intelligent Optical Network Hardware." Worldwide revenues for this new generation of intelligent optical network hardware hit $5.37 billion in 2000 and are expected to reach $8.52 billion in 2001. "We're at the beginning of a period of remarkable growth in the intelligent optical network hardware market," said Infonetics Research principal analyst and co-founder, Michael Howard. "Our numbers support this reality: Intelligent long haul equipment revenues alone totaled $2.78 billion in 2000 and we forecast them to reach $4.25 billion in 2001." The intelligent optical market represents an estimated 15-20% of the total worldwide optical hardware market. This new "intelligent" generation of optical network hardware distinguishes itself from first generation optical hardware because it: Is designed for both voice and data Deploys in mesh and star configurations, as well as in rings Allows carriers to remotely configure hardware and to provision services Scales efficiently in service provider networks