Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: upanddown who wrote (434)	2/27/2001 12:43:03 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Average depth is about 5,400 to 5,600 feet. Now, totally ignoring the log normal distribution of drilling results, and ignoring offshore/GOM wells... I think average drilling time for 5,400 is about 2 1/2 weeks. (1,200 active rigs looking for gas) X (20 wells per rig per year) X (0.8 success rate (mostly infield/offsetts) X (? mmcf/d average production per well) = Yearly new gas supply in mmcf/d 19,200 X (? mmcf/d average production per well) = Yearly new gas supply If the average is 500 mmcf/d per well, then we get --- 9.6 Bcf/d (slight surplus) If the average is 300 mmcf/d per well, then we get -- 5.76 Bcf/d (slight shortfall) I don't know if there is enough 3-D seismic in inventory to keep up this drilling rate. IF you don't have seismic, the success rate will fall and. More subtle - If you don't have LOTS of seismic data, you can't pick the bigger targets & skip the smaller ones, so the average flow per well will drop (because you are drilling smaller formations) Bringing on more drill rigs will help somewhat, but will take 6 months to 3 years. The people who restore rigs are few and the are loaded up. Effectiveness of new crews is big issue. Other 'fixes' 1. Coal bed methane (don't know if the water wells used to drill these get counted in rig numbers) 2. Arctic Canada, maybe Alaska (5-7 years out) 3. East Lost Hills 4. A lot more Deepwater Gulf of Mexico 5. Higher prices and conservation 6. LNG / liquids imports (2-5 years to build & permit new port facilities) 7. In California only - magic ritual for Energy Fairy

To: upanddown who wrote (434)	2/27/2001 5:53:34 AM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 23153

John Whats the matter was that report not bullish enough for you? All you need to do is read that report and a couple from Simmons and one could put all their money in the patch and sleep very good at night. I hope to see a follow up report soon for all Q4 production and confirm their has been no major increases. I would think if a company made a major production increase they would make sure everyone knew about it. The same goes for pending major increases. AGA's <40 hours....