Top o da mornin Porchies!!
Can the naz stay green 3 days in a row?
Doesn't seem likely, but stranger things have happened!
Some briefing.com stuff:
11:30 ET Dow +1, Nasdaq -37, S&P -1.20: [BRIEFING.COM] Investors are returning to their defensive bunkers now that the Consumer Confidence data have not done much to drive the tech market higher. Stocks with clear earnings visibility such as health care and tobacco stocks are garnering a good deal of buying interest today. In that regard, Philip Morris (MO +1.35) is helping to lead the recent rebound in the Dow. Would also note that there has been a deteriorating advanced/decline line, especially in the Nasdaq. Should this disparity remain, a sustained rebound effort will be more difficult to achieve. Separately, communication IC chips are weak after Goldman trimmed estimates this morning. Otherwise, the SOX index would likely be trading in positive territory. SOX -2.87... NYSE Adv/Dec 1356/1375... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1150/2012.
11:05 ET Dow -34, Nasdaq -50, S&P -5.59: [BRIEFING.COM] The indices have headed south since the Consumer Confidence data was released. As a result of the decreasing likelihood of an inter-meeting interest rate cut, the market looks unwilling to build upon the strength we have seen the last couple of sessions. The market appears frustrated that the Fed is not reacting quickly enough to a worsening economic environment. Techs continue to lead on the downside including fber optic stocks. Also weak is the chip equipment sector as a result of reduced estimates on Novellus (NVLS 41 1/2 -2 1/8) from Salomon Smith Barney who expects the company to warn about EPS this week. It's unfortunate for the sector as investors were hoping that the group would not trade down on bad news which would signal that it's close to a bottom. NYSE Adv/Dec 1281/1384... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1049/1993.
10:30 ET Dow -38, Nasdaq -41, S&P -5.72: [BRIEFING.COM] In the wake of the consumer confidence data, the market has responded in finicky fashion as traders try to assess the ramifications of the report... First, the continued drop in consumer confidence does raise the odds of a 50bp ease, but the negative response following the report could stem from a sense of disappointment that the February number wasn't bad enough to prompt an inter-meeting rate cut-- and that possibility has been the main support for the market since Friday... It could also stem from a sense of diappointment that the Fed is falling behind the curve with efforts to stimulate growth, and with that realization in mind, the market may be fearing a hard landing, and subsequently, will be looking to force the Fed's hand for an aggressive inter-meeting cut (by trading lower) before the March 20 FOMC meeting... Either way, the market isn't in a contented state right now... NYSE Adv/Dec 1200/1336... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1011/1853.
10:00 ET Dow +25, Nasdaq -9, S&P +3.38: [BRIEFING.COM] Little conviction in the early-going as tech losses and the impending release of Consumer Confidence data have kept investors on the sidelines... Strength in the HMO, brokerage, insurance and oil groups has helped offset some of the initial selling pressure, but again, one can't put too much emphasis on the opening trends as the consumer confidence data will provide the real cue for traders... With that in mind, the figure was just released and it was worse than expected at 106.8 (consensus was 111.0)... That marks the lowest level in five years... The initial reaction has been mixed with a slightly positive bias as the figure will raise speculation surrounding the likelihood of an inter-meeting cut... NYSE Adv/Dec 1187/1168... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 992/1595.
09:45 ET Dow +6, Nasdaq -20, S&P -2.07: [BRIEFING.COM] The market opened weaker this morning and has been lacking conviction which is an indication that the markets are anxiously awaiting the Consumer Confidence results due out at the top of the hour. The importance of this indicator increased when Greenspan recently testified before the Senate, and noted his concerns regarding the break in consumer confidence that has yet to be corrected... As a result, a very low number would increase the likelihood that the Fed would make an inter-meeting interest rate cut. However, at the same time, a very weak result would also scare traders that the economy is coming in for a harder landing. NYSE Adv/Dec 1096/1073... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 942/1463.
09:20 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] The pre-market indicators have improved somewhat since our last comment indicating a mixed opening. S&P futures are trading 2 points below fair value while Nasdaq 100 futures, at 2066, are 37 points below fair value. Expect weakness in the fiber optic space as JDS Uniphase (JDSU 32 5/8) announced 3,000 layoffs. This announcement is further evidence that capital spending in this sector is slowing as Nortel (NT 18.88) recently issued a warned about weakening conditions. Also, Lehman downgraded Extreme Networks (EXTR 25 13/16) and Foundry (FDRY 13 5/16). PC stocks should come under pressure as Merrill Lynch downgraded Gateway (GTW 17.81) to Neutral as they expect GTW to significantly lower EPS guidance this week.
08:45 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] The markets are poised for a weaker open this morning with futures trading in red across the board. An important number to watch today is Consumer Confidence for February which will be released at 10:00 ET. Briefing.com is forecasting 109.0, which would be down 5% from a sharp drop in January. Our forecast would also represent a 5-year low. This indicator is important because lower consumer attitudes result in lower consumer spending. Also notable this morning: Expect retail stocks to be strong as Federated (FD 45.71) reported a nickel above estimates and Target (TGT 37.80) was upgraded by Merrill Lynch to Near Term Buy. Separately, Nike (NKE 49.17) will be a lowlight after warning after the close yesterday that FebQ would be lower than expected. NKE indicated -9 in pre-market.
07:16 ET: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures trading at 1270, 0 points below fair value, Nasdaq 100 futures trading at 2084, 20.0 points below fair value. Bonds are +4/32 5.417%.
07:15 ET: FTSE +0.95%, DAX +0.79%: [BRIEFING.COM] European markets were led higher by telecom and phone equipment sectors on the view that the Fed will come to the aid of the market with a 50 bps inter-meeting cut. ERICY, NOK, VOD and DT helped pace gainers. Innogy Holdings fell over 6% after agreeing to buy the Yorkshire Power Group for $2.75 bln. HSBC fell 4% after overnight weakness.
07:03 ET Nikkei -1.07%, Hang Seng -2.60%: [BRIEFING.COM] The banking sector paced declines in Japan, with Mizuho closing down 6.5% so correcting more than a quarter of the previous week's rally on the view that a BOJ rate cut would probably not help the economy given the excessive bad loan problem. Retailers continued to slide with 7-11 down 7.5% after FamilyMart earlier this week cut its net income forecast nearly 50%. The chipmaking sector fell after Salomon said Intel may cut capital spending. Hong Kong markets were led lower by the banking sector after HSBC and Hang Seng bank reported lower than expected earnings.
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Ramblin monkey business |
