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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mtnlady who wrote (4428)	2/27/2001 1:36:12 PM
From: mtnlady	Respond to of 6974

I should note that in the low 40 range (41-44) SEBL is about to enter it's old trading range that was pierced last fall. With all the splits we have been through we tend to forget how far SEBL has come in the last 2 years! Chart is thanks to AllansAlias on the 'clown' thread. There are a few on SI that 'know their stuff'. Allan is one of the better ones when it comes to TA and market direction. My 'gut' feel is that we fight in this area (high 30's low 40's) - bouncing off the top of this old range. Key junction point for the market. Either we rebound here in the next day or so or we sink lower (and SEBL will enter the old trading range). I am betting that, at least this time around, the line holds and we rebound with a rally into March. Rally will be fueled by hopes that we have 'seen the worst of it' and we have successfully tested the lows without going much further. The Fed will have done it's 3rd rate cut and the market 'experts' will all exclaim how the market always starts the road to recovery after the 3rd cut... NAZ goes back up to the 2600-2800-3000 range before starting her final descent this late spring/early summer. SEBL will find herself bouncing off of the lows of this channel then. Anyway... that's my best guess at what will happen. On the other hand we could go visit those lows in the next few days. Your 'educated' guess is as good as the next ones! I think we start the rebound later this week. In the mean time.. I'll keep hangin' on to those puts... (which are now worth more than some of my LEAPs!). Just cashed out some of my other puts for SEBL 80 LEAPs. Nothing like buying somethin' when your nervous... geocities.com

To: mtnlady who wrote (4428)	2/27/2001 1:41:26 PM
From: gh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Thanks for responding so quickly. I don't like what I'm seeing either. I'm hoping the reason is #1 on your list. Haven't been able to find any negative news so far. The only thing I can think of is that possibly the negative Nike/ITWO news might be affecting other software companies. Anyway, appreciate your thoughts. I've held SEBL for a while and am considering adding more shares if it drops to the high 30's. One thing I've learned is I'm no market timer. Nevertheless, I continue to nibble at my favorite stocks on the dips. Hopefully, this bear market won't last forever.