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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (72467)	2/27/2001 4:16:31 PM
From: Andrew G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Fool on the Hill: Are Tech Stocks Safe Yet? (from Motley Fool) biz.yahoo.com The bubble has been bursting for less than a year now. Is it over? The lessons from history are not comforting. On the discussion boards, I've posted some information on the bubbles of 1929 and 1973, which took nearly three and two years to deflate, respectively. Also, consider a study by Jeremy Grantham of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., cited in the July 3 edition of Outstanding Investor Digest. In it, Grantham studied 37 examples of bubbles -- defined as 1-in-40-year breakout events -- in stocks, gold, oil, and the like over 200 years. He concluded: "Every one of them -- most of which were felt to be new eras -- gave everything back to trend. There were no survivors." That's scary enough, but consider Grantham's next point: "In the stock market, the subsequent declines never stopped at the trend line. They all went slicing through fair value like a knife through butter."